Remember that “city-killer” asteroid that was expected to land in Pakistan by 2032? Well, there’s good news that it won’t hit Pakistan, but the bad news is that it will now likely hit the Moon.
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, now has a small chance—about 4.3%—of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032, according to NASA. That’s up slightly from a 3.8% chance, based on new data.
First spotted on December 27, 2024, by a NASA telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 is about the size of a 10-story building, measuring 174 to 220 feet (53 to 67 meters) wide. A few months ago, it caused a scare because it had a chance of slamming into Earth, with a possible impact zone stretching from the Pacific Ocean to parts of South America, Africa, and Asia, including Pakistan. If it had hit a city, it could have smashed windows or damaged buildings, but it wasn’t likely to cause massive disasters like tsunamis.
By February 2025, scientists used telescopes in Chile and Hawaii to get a better look at its path and found Earth was no longer in danger. On February 24, NASA posted on social media that the chance of it hitting Earth dropped to almost nothing (0.004%), meaning it will safely pass by in 2032. Now, attention has turned to the Moon.
In May 2025, the James Webb Space Telescope took pictures of 2024 YR4, helping scientists improve their predictions by about 20%. This new info shows the asteroid might come close to the Moon in 2032, with a small chance of a collision. NASA says it’s normal for these odds to shift as they learn more.
Even if it hits the Moon, it won’t change the Moon’s orbit or cause trouble for Earth. Dr. Pawan Kumar, an astronomer, said any Moon debris would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, so there’s no danger to us.
This asteroid comes from a region between Mars and Jupiter and swings by Earth every few years. It passed fairly close last December, about 515,000 miles from Earth and 303,000 miles from the Moon. Right now, it’s too far to see, but it’ll be back in view in 2028. Scientists will study it more then to figure out its shape and what it’s made of, which will help them predict its path even better.
If 2024 YR4 does crash into the Moon, it could create a crater about a mile wide. That would be exciting for scientists, as it’s a chance to learn more about asteroids and their effects. This asteroid has already helped NASA and other space agencies practice how to track and warn people about space rocks that come too close.
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