SPI-Based Weekly Inflation Soars Due to Exorbitant Vegetable Prices

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) based weekly inflation rate has reached 14.31% after an increase of 1.23% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the combined index was at 163.44 on October 28, 2021, as compared to 161.46 on October 21, 2021, while the index was recorded at 142.98 a year ago on October 29, 2020.

During the week under review, out of 51 items, prices of 25 (49.02%) items increased, prices of four (7.84%) items decreased and prices of 22 (43.14%) items remained stable.

The SPI for the current week recorded an increase in the prices of tomatoes (11.42%), potatoes (6.05%), LPG (3.89%), sugar (3.74%), eggs (3.16%), electricity for Q1 (2.98%), mustard oil (1.39%), gur (1.36%), chicken (1.09%) and cooking oil 5-liter (1.08%) with the joint impact of (1.18%) into the overall SPI for a combined group of (1.23%).

On the other hand, a decrease was observed in the prices of onions (5.49%), bananas (3.51%), pulse Moong (0.80%), and garlic (0.38%). According to the PBS data, the year on year trend depicts an increase of 14.31%, LPG (80.06%), electricity for Q1 (65.91%), mustard oil (47.88%), vegetable ghee 1-kg (44.61%), cooking oil 5-liter (42.30%), chilies powdered (33.43%), petrol (32.22%), chicken (31.52%), diesel (28.91%), washing soap (27.98%) and garlic (24.37%), while major decrease observed in the prices of tomatoes (47.12%), onions (35.9%), pulse Moong (32.33%), potatoes (19.24%) and pulse Mash (0.79%).

The weekly SPI percentage change by income groups showed that SPI across all quantiles ranged between 1.01% and 1.4%. The lowest income group witnessed a weekly increase of 1.29% while the highest income group recorded an increase of 1.4%. On a yearly basis, analysis of SPI change across different income segments showed that it increased across all quantities ranging between 12.40% and 15.01%.

It is pertinent to note that the weekly inflation went up by 1.38%, 0.20%, and 1.21%, respectively, by weeks ended on October 21, October 14, and October 07.