Questions Raised After Ministry of Commerce & PBS Share Different Trade Figures [Updated]

The Ministry of Commerce and Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released trade figures with two just days gap, but showing huge discrepancies, raising serious questions on the authenticity of this important matter.

Significant differences were witnessed especially with respect to imports data.

According to Commerce Ministry during December 2021, the imports increased by 37.9 percent to $6.901 billion as compared to $5.005 billion in December 2020, reflecting a wide difference when compared to the PBS data which shows that imports were $7.597 billion.

The trade deficit widened by 106.4 percent during the first half (July-December) of the current fiscal year 2021-22 and reached $25.478 billion compared to $12.344 billion during the same period of 2020-21, revealed the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data.

According to the PBS, the country’s exports declined by 5.55 percent on a month-on-month basis and remained $2.740 billion in December 2021 compared to $2.901 billion in November 2021.

The country’s exports increased by 24.7 percent and remained $15.102 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year compared to $12.110 billion during the same period of 2020-21. Imports increased by 65.94 percent during the first half of the current fiscal year and stood at $40.580 billion compared to $24.454 billion during the same period of the corresponding year, stated the PBS.

However, according to the Commerce Ministry, during the first half of the current financial year, exports increased by 25 percent to $15.125 billion as compared to $12.110 billion during the corresponding period of last year.

According to the PBS, the country’s trade deficit widened by 85.38 percent on a year-on-year basis jumping from $2.620 billion in December 2020 to $4.857 billion in December 2021. Imports registered an increase of 52.37 percent on a year-on-year basis and jumped from $4.986 billion in December 2020 to $7.597 billion in December 2021.

Further, exports registered 15.8 percent growth on a year-on-year basis and increased from $2.366 billion in December 2020 to $2.740 billion in December 2021. However, according to the Commerce Ministry, during December 2021, Pakistan’s imports decreased by $1 billion to $6.9 billion as compared to $7.9 billion in November 2021.

According to the Commerce Ministry, exports during December 2021 increased by 16.7 percent to $2.761 billion as compared to $2.366 billion in December 2020, which also differs from the PBS data.

According to the PBS data, the trade deficit narrowed by 2.81 percent on a month-on-month basis from $4.998 billion in November 2021 to $4.857 billion in December 2021.

Imports declined by 3.82 percent on a month-on-month basis and remained $7.597 billion in December 2021 compared to $7.899 billion in November 2021.

Commerce Advisor’s Clarification

The Advisor to the PM on Commerce, Abdul Razak Dawood, clarified the aforesaid discrepancies that were observed in import figures released by the Ministry of Commerce and PBS.

Early figures are usually received in raw form as goods are imported at various customs stations. In addition, all relevant numbers (data) are compiled by the Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL), which is further processed by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for release in the first week of the month, Dawood explained.

He also mentioned that the MoC usually releases the provisional pre-PBS and “Data as it is [is] received from PRAL. The trade figures released subsequently by the PBS depict the final position”. He seemed apologetic, and remarked, “Any inconvenience caused by this confusion is regretted, and we hope that the final position is clear”.

 



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