Pakistan is projected to become the sixth-largest economy in the world by 2075, according to a research paper published by Goldman Sachs.
‘The Path to 2075’ paper authored by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas projects that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the US, Indonesia, and Nigeria with Pakistan projected to occupy the sixth spot given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.
Pakistan’s star future status is predicted on the back of its population growth, which could place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years, according to the paper.
The paper projects that Pakistan’s Real GDP would grow to $12.7 trillion by 2075 with its GDP per capita soaring to $27,100.
The authors have highlighted “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism” as the key risks to their projections.
The paper says that unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, climate change could heavily skew these projections, particularly for countries like Pakistan.
Moreover, it says that populist nationalists coming to power in many countries might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalization, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.
Looking out to 2075, the authors caution that world growth, which has already dimmed over the decades, is heading further south.
Much of the slowdown is thanks to a deceleration in population gains. Over the past half-century, the number of people on the plant went from increasing 2 percent a year to less than 1 percent now and is expected to drop to near zero by 2075.
The authors say that the only way to sustain faster economic growth if your population isn’t increasing is to improve productivity. The report highlights that there has been a slowdown in productivity in both emerging markets and developed economies with a weakening in the globalization of trade as a major culprit.