NEPRA Approves Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2022-31

The Authority has approved the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2022-31 (IGCEP-2022), submitted by NTDC in keeping with the relevant provisions of the Grid Code 2005.

The IGCEP is a  dynamic document covering a planning horizon of ten (10) years and will be revised annually. The plan will act as a primary document for adding new capacity for the generation to meet future electricity demand in a scientific and systematic manner, thus avoiding the boom and bust cycles that have become a recurring issue in the country.

The IGCEP-2022 builds on the plans laid down by the preceding iteration and proposes a gradual shift from an energy mix heavily dominated by imported fossils like Coal, Furnace Oil, and RLNG towards one pillared by indigenous sources of energy, including Hydel, Thar Coal, Wind, and Solar. Furnace oil is expected to be phased out by 2031.

Similarly, electricity generation from RLNG and Imported coal will drop to 2 percent and 8 percent, respectively, in 2031. At the same time, there will be a substantial increase in the electricity generated by hydel, wind, and solar PV.

The contribution of hydel, wind, and solar PV which currently stands at 28 percent, 4 percent, and 1 percent respectively will be increased to 39 percent, 10 percent, and 10 percent respectively, thereby increasing the total share of green electricity to around 59 percent.

The Authority is satisfied that the IGCEP-2022 is based on the utilization of indigenous and Renewable Energy resources for the generation of low-cost, environment-friendly electricity.

The IGCEP-2022 also provides details for six additional scenarios, simulated to cater for any unforeseen events in the future.

These include scenarios dealing with lower and higher electrical demands as well as four sensitivity scenarios dealing with the early commissioning of the Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project in 2029, the commissioning of Chashma Nuclear (C-5) in 2029, the inclusion of local coal power projects in 2027 and 2030 and unconstrained addition of projects based on renewable energy.

The Authority appreciates the efforts of the planning department of NTDC which developed the IGCEP-2022 using indigenous capability.

Further, the Authority recognizes the efforts of all power sector stakeholders especially the energy departments of the provinces and the Power Division of the Ministry of Energy, who have provided their very useful inputs in the preparation of IGCEP-2022.