PMD Forecasts Heavy Rainfall Season in Next 3 Months

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted more active rain pattern over the next three months, with the strongest signal focused on western and northwestern Pakistan.

According to PMD, higher rainfall activity is expected particularly in lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, northern Balochistan, and western Punjab, pointing to a busier late-winter to early-spring spell in these areas.

The department’s probability outlook also shows the clearest tilt toward heavier precipitation over western and central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern to central Balochistan.

In contrast, PMD expects rainfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh, and southern Balochistan to remain close to the usual seasonal pattern, while northern Gilgit-Baltistan is likely to see comparatively less rainfall during the same period.

PMD said the forecast is based on a combined assessment of eight global seasonal prediction models. It added that major climate drivers are not expected to dominate the season, with the Indian Ocean Dipole projected to remain neutral and ENSO expected to shift from marginally negative to neutral and stay there through the period.

Alongside the rain outlook, PMD also projects above-normal temperatures across the country during the season, with the strongest warming over northern areas, and cautioned that March and April could still bring early heatwave risk during dry breaks.