Pakistan’s Economy Grows by 4% in Q3 FY26

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) released GDP estimates for 3QFY26, showing growth of 4.0 percent year-on-year, taking the 9MFY26 average growth also to 4.0 percent, within the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projected range of 3.75 percent to 4.75 percent.

The 9MFY26 growth trend is currently at the upper end of the annual forecast range of 3.5 to 4.0 percent for FY26. The outlook is maintained within this range as a potential slowdown in economic activity is expected in 4Q.

According to Topline Securities, this is due to higher oil prices and administrative measures by the government, including early market closures, which may weigh on growth.

The committee also revised upward GDP growth for 1Q and 2QFY26 by 29 basis points and 16 basis points to 3.92 percent and 4.05 percent, respectively.

The view is also aligned with the provisional GDP growth estimate of 3.7 percent for FY26 released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The committee also slightly revised FY25 GDP growth upward to 3.18 percent from the earlier estimate of 3.06 percent.

Agriculture posted a seven-quarter high growth of 3.01 percent in 3QFY26 compared to 2.4 percent in 3QFY25, driven by 3.7 percent growth in livestock, 2.27 percent in other crops, and 1.62 percent in forestry, while important crops grew by 1.1 percent.

The 9MFY26 agriculture growth average stands at 2.9 percent. The FY26 agriculture growth target is maintained at 3.0 percent, with crops expected at 2.1 percent, livestock at 3.5 percent, and forestry at 3.0 percent.

The industrial sector grew by 4.65 percent in 3QFY26 compared to 0.3 percent in 3QFY25. Within the industry, Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) increased by 9.53 percent, while construction posted modest growth of 0.5 percent due to a high base effect from last year.

The 9MFY26 industrial growth average stands at 6.4 percent compared to 0.4 percent in 9MFY25. The FY26 industrial growth forecast is maintained at 6.8 percent, supported by a low base in electricity, gas, and water, along with strong LSM performance.

The services sector grew by 4.18 percent, led mainly by 8.88 percent growth in public administration and social security and 9.78 percent growth in information and communication.

The 9MFY26 services growth average stands at 3.7 percent compared to 2.8 percent in 9MFY25, while the FY26 services growth assumption is maintained at 3.0 percent.