Pakistan’s Population to Hit 39 Crore in 2050

Pakistan’s population may surge to nearly 390 million by 2050, marking a 62% increase from current levels, according to a new official report launched on Tuesday.

The “Population Projections 2023-2050” report was unveiled by Ahsan Iqbal and prepared in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund.

The report uses the 2023 population census as the base year, when Pakistan’s population stood at 241.9 million.

Three Population Growth Scenarios

The report outlines population projections under three different scenarios based on fertility decline and contraceptive use.

Slow Fertility Decline Scenario

Under this projection:

• Pakistan’s population will reach 390 million by 2050
• The population will increase by 148 million people
• Overall growth rate will stand at 62%

The report states that demographic momentum and fertility patterns will continue to drive rapid population growth across provinces.

Rapid Fertility Decline Scenario

If fertility rates decline sharply:

• Population is projected to reach 371.9 million by 2050
• Increase of 129.3 million people
• Overall rise of 54% from 2023 levels

The report notes that this scenario reflects slower population growth with a more balanced demographic structure.

Contraceptive Use Scenario

Under evidence-based contraceptive adoption:

• Population is projected to increase to 383.2 million by 2050
• Growth will still exceed 59% over the base year
• Working-Age Population to Rise Sharply

The report highlights a major increase in Pakistan’s working-age population.

Key Projections

• Working-age population (15-64 years) will rise from 135.2 million to 255.4 million
• Youth population (15-29 years) will increase from 63 million to 100 million
• Children below 18 years will grow from 118 million to 139.7 million
• Elderly population (65+) will rise from 8.6 million to 22.6 million

The report describes this demographic shift as a potential “demographic dividend” if Pakistan invests adequately in:

• Education
• Healthcare
• Employment generation
• Social protection systems
• Economic Challenges Ahead

The report warns that Pakistan’s current economic growth model may not be sufficient to absorb the expanding labor force.

Pakistan currently requires sustainable economic growth of 6-8% to generate enough jobs, but the economy has averaged around 3.5% annual growth in recent years.

The report also notes that ongoing fiscal and monetary consolidation measures under the International Monetary Fund program limit growth potential above 5%.

Ahsan Iqbal Calls for Population Reforms

Speaking at the launch ceremony, Ahsan Iqbal said uncontrolled population growth has become a serious challenge to:

• Sustainable development
• Economic progress
• Resource management

He also stressed the need to reform the NFC Award formula, noting that 82% of resource distribution currently depends on population share.

According to the minister, provinces that successfully manage population growth should receive additional incentives.

Provincial Population Projections

Punjab

• Population expected to rise from 128 million to 200 million
• Increase of 56%

Sindh

• Population projected to grow from 56 million to 91.2 million
• Increase of 64%

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

• Population expected to increase from 41 million to 68 million
• Growth of 66%

Balochistan

• Population projected to rise from 14.7 million to 25 million
• Highest provincial increase at 68%

Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT)

Population expected to nearly triple from 2.3 million to 6.5 million by 2050

Need for Long-Term Planning

The report stresses that Pakistan will require comprehensive urban planning, infrastructure development and improved public services to manage rapid population growth over the coming decades.

It also notes that although the share of people below 30 years of age will decline from 67% to 54% by 2050, the absolute number of young people will still increase to 212 million, reflecting a gradual transition toward an ageing population.