PMD Predicts Less Rain, Higher Temperatures Until September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country from July to September 2026, raising concerns about water shortages, crop stress and weather-related disasters.

According to the PMD’s three-month outlook, warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate the development of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with reduced rainfall in Pakistan. While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to shift into a positive phase during the season, its impact on monsoon rainfall is likely to remain limited due to its late development.

The forecast suggests normal to below-normal rainfall in most regions, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and much of Balochistan. However, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and upper KP are expected to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.

Temperatures are projected to remain above normal nationwide, with the highest departures expected in northeastern Punjab and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan. The PMD warned that elevated temperatures could trigger intermittent heat stress, particularly in the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh.

The department also highlighted the risk of flash floods, landslides and urban flooding, especially in northern and mountainous regions. Accelerated snowmelt due to higher temperatures may increase river flows and raise the threat of glacial lake outburst floods in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir.

The PMD warned that below-normal rainfall could increase irrigation demand for key Kharif crops, including rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize, while also increasing the risk of dengue outbreaks, dust storms, hailstorms and crop damage.