Rupee Reverses Losses Against US Dollar But Outlook Remains Grim

The Pakistani rupee (PKR) reversed losses against the US Dollar and posted gains during intraday trade today.

The Pakistani rupee was largely stable during the early hours of intraday trade today with the interbank rate gaining Rs. 1 to reach 282.95 by 11 AM. By 13:25 PM, it went as low as 284 before recovering later.

At close, the PKR appreciated by 0.01 percent to close at 283.55 after gaining three paisas during intraday trade today.

The rupee reported marginal gains today despite expectations of improved fundamentals following the authorities’ decision to reopen imports. Moreover, added clarity on the long-awaited Staff Level Agreement (SLA) between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offered some relief.

SLA will be signed with the IMF as soon as the lender receives confirmation of support from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The rupee is still down over Rs. 51 since its record-breaking single-day drop of Rs. 25 in the last week of January and has since then played in mostly red due to immense economic pressure. As per exchange rate movements witnessed today, the PKR has gained marginally today, noting a fresh surge but suspending movement near last week’s low of 284.03.

Money changers say today’s gains reflect temporary relief as business was dull and dealings were minuscule throughout the morning. However, more drops will prevail until either an IMF bailout, which looks unlikely any time soon, or a policy rate hike at the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) upcoming market review on April 27th, 2023.

The PKR was bearish against most of the other major currencies in the interbank market today. It lost Rs. 1 against the Australian Dollar (AUD), Rs. 1.28 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Rs. 1.90 against the Euro (EUR), and Rs. 1.95 against the Pound Sterling (GBP).

Conversely, it held out against the Saudi Riyal (SAR) and the UAE Dirham (AED) in today’s interbank currency market.



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