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World Test Championship Final: Who is Still in the Race?

The race for the two coveted spots in the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 final remains open, with Australia and India still in the running after their rain-hit draw at Brisbane.

Brisbane Test Ends in a Draw

Australia, with a commanding 185-run first-innings lead, declared their second innings at 89-7 in just 18 overs, setting India a target of 275 runs in a maximum of 54 overs. However, persistent rain halted play shortly after India reached 8-0 in 2.1 overs, forcing the match to end in a draw.

This was only the second drawn Test of 2024, following the rain-affected West Indies-South Africa game at Port of Spain.

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WTC Points Table Impact

Team	Played	Won	Draw	Lost	Deduction	Points	PCT
South Africa	10	6	1	3	0	76	63.33%
Australia	15	9	2	4	10	106	58.89%
India	17	9	2	3	2	114	55.88%
New Zealand	14	7	0	7	3	81	48.21%
Sri Lanka	11	5	0	6	0	60	45.45%
England	22	11	1	10	22	114	43.18%
Pakistan	10	4	0	6	8	40	33.33%
Bangladesh	12	4	0	8	3	45	31.25%
West Indies	11	2	2	7	0	32	24.24%

Australia: PCT dropped to 58.89, maintaining second place.
India: PCT fell to 55.88, holding third place.
South Africa: Remained table toppers with a PCT of 63.33.

Remaining Fixtures for India and Australia

India: Their WTC league phase concludes with two Tests in this series at Melbourne and Sydney meaning they would need postitive results from each game to stand a chance of making the World Test Championship Final once more.
Australia: Still have a cushion of two more Tests in Galle against Sri Lanka on top of their remaining BGT fixtures putting them as strong favourites for the WTC Final spot, likely against South Africa.

Qualification Scenarios

South Africa’s Path

A single draw and a loss against Pakistan will give South Africa a PCT of 60.61, securing their spot in the final.
Two losses will reduce their PCT to 52.78, putting their qualification at risk.

India’s Path

Winning both Tests will elevate India to a PCT of 60.53, ensuring qualification.
A win and a draw will take India to 57.02, requiring Sri Lanka to secure at least one draw against Australia to keep the Aussies below 55.26.
A win and a loss will leave India at 55.26, eliminating them unless Sri Lanka win their series 1-0 or better.

Australia’s Path

Australia must prevent India from reaching the benchmarks mentioned above.
A win or consistent draws in their upcoming games against Sri Lanka could secure their place.

Sri Lanka’s Unlikely but Possible Path

A 2-0 victory over Australia in Galle will raise Sri Lanka’s PCT to 53.85. In this scenario, South Africa could face elimination if they lose 0-2 to Pakistan.

Final Outlook

While South Africa remains the favourite to clinch one spot, the battle between India and Australia for the second berth intensifies, with slim chances of a surprise entry by Sri Lanka. The remaining fixtures will be crucial in determining the finalists for the WTC 2023-25 showdown.