The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its seasonal outlook for the upcoming Monsoon Season, warning of above-normal rainfall in several regions, along with the possibility of extreme weather events, floods, and glacial lake outbursts.
According to the PMD, the forecast is based on the analysis of eight global seasonal prediction models. The data indicates that central to southern parts of the country, including Punjab and Kashmir, are likely to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall during the July-August-September (JAS) period.
In contrast, northern regions such as Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may witness normal to slightly below-normal rainfall during the same period.
PMD also forecasts above-normal temperatures across the country, with the most significant deviations expected in Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The elevated temperatures in upper northern areas are expected to accelerate snowmelt, increasing river water levels and adding pressure on already vulnerable catchment areas.
Expected Weather Hazards
The outlook warns of several potential hazards:
- Riverine Floods due to intense rainfall in catchment areas.
- Urban and flash flooding in major cities and hilly terrains, especially in Punjab, KP, Sindh, and AJK during the early phase of the season.
- Dust storms, strong winds, and hailstorms triggered by temperature gradients.
- Increased chances of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Gilgit-Baltistan and upper KP due to abnormal heat.
- Positive impact: Rainfall is expected to help replenish water reservoirs and improve irrigation and power generation capacity.
Public Advisory
The PMD advises citizens to:
- Follow official weather updates via PMD Website and mobile app notifications.
- Avoid unnecessary travel during heavy rainfall.
- Keep emergency kits ready with essentials.
- Report blocked drains or water accumulation to local authorities.
- Stay away from electric poles, rivers, and canals during storms.
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PMD keeps changing. At one point of time the rains were forecasted subnormal, now normal and above normal.
What kind of models they use, God knows, what is their competence again God knows.
Exactly, it was predicted some days ago by PMD that there will be few rainfalls in the monsoon period, now saying normal to above normal are expected.
This is a chat GPT generated news article