The Hidden Environmental Cost of Pakistan’s Solar Boom

By Shahnawaz Akhter

Pakistan’s rooftop solar revolution has been extraordinary. The country currently has around 7,000 MW capacity of net metering-based solar systems connected to the grid. In addition, the Power Division’s Power Planning and Monitoring Company (PPMC) estimates that around 13,000 to 14,000 MW capacity of solar users are operating off-grid. The country imported approximately 50 gigawatts of solar panels in 2025, twice the previous year’s volume.

Amidst soaring electricity costs and frequent outages, households and businesses have embraced photovoltaic technology as their solution for energy independence. Yet this rush towards distributed solar generation raises uncomfortable questions that deserve consideration before we commit to landscapes dominated by rooftops clad in panels that will, inevitably, become tomorrow’s waste.

A solar panel’s typical lifespan is 25 to 30 years. What happens when millions reach their end of life? The International Renewable Energy Agency projects global photovoltaic waste could reach 78 million tonnes by 2050, with some studies suggesting substantially higher figures if consumers replace panels early for newer, more efficient technology. Pakistan, having imported panels equivalent to the entire national grid capacity in four years, faces a looming waste crisis few are discussing.

The environmental credentials of solar panels tarnish when examining their manufacturing footprint. Producing crystalline silicon cells requires temperatures exceeding 1,500 degrees Celsius, contributing approximately 50 to 70 per cent of the technology’s total carbon footprint. Lifecycle emissions average about 40 to 50 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour. Whilst lower than fossil fuels, this represents a substantial environmental investment. Much of Pakistan’s imported solar equipment originates from fossil fuel-fired facilities, further compounding the carbon burden embedded in each panel before it generates its first watt.

More troubling is what lurks within these devices. Solar panels contain toxic heavy metals including lead, cadmium, selenium, and arsenic. The United States Environmental Protection Agency confirms many panels fail toxicity characteristic leaching procedures, qualifying them as hazardous waste. When panels break down in landfills or are improperly disposed of, these metals leach into soil and groundwater, creating contamination that persists for decades. Cadmium exposure causes serious lung damage, whilst lead poses well-documented neurological risks.

The situation becomes more complex when considering battery storage, increasingly paired with rooftop solar. Pakistan imported an estimated 1.25 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion battery packs in 2024, potentially reaching 8.75 gigawatt-hours by 2030. These batteries contain hazardous materials requiring specialised recycling infrastructure barely existing in Pakistan. The current recycling rate for lithium-ion batteries in the United States hovers around 20 per cent. In Pakistan, where environmental regulations are less stringent, the disposal challenge is magnified. While there has been ongoing concern about an alleged attack on the green revolution, which is not the case, given that the regulation promotes fairness, advocates should also focus on issues like the safe disposal of solar panels at the end of their lifecycle and also the importance of using tier 1 solar panels during installation.

Recycling solar panels is neither simple nor economically attractive. Whilst panels contain valuable materials including silver, copper, and silicon, extracting these elements requires sophisticated processes. Until recently, recovering these materials has not been commercially viable. Pakistan lacks the specialised infrastructure for photovoltaic waste management that exists in Europe. Without clear regulations and collection systems, millions of panels will likely end up in landfills, releasing toxic materials and squandering recoverable resources worth billions. Perhaps, as the next and futuristic step, regulations should focus on this issue before it gains momentum and becomes gigantic.

The issue extends beyond waste management to questions of equity and grid sustainability. Rooftop solar adoption has concentrated amongst affluent households with capital to invest. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority reports that net-metered consumers shifted approximately 159 billion rupees to other consumers in 2024. If unchecked, this regressive cost shifting could grow to 4.24 trillion rupees by 2034[5], as those unable to afford rooftop systems shoulder an ever-larger share of fixed grid costs.

The new NEPRA regulations implemented this month represent a necessary recalibration. By shifting from net metering to net billing, they acknowledge that exported electricity should be valued at its true cost to the system, not subsidised by consumers without solar access. More importantly, by encouraging right-sizing of systems for self-consumption rather than oversized installations designed for export, these regulations may inadvertently slow the accumulation of future waste.

Solar energy remains a vital component of Pakistan’s energy future, but this does not exempt it from rigorous environmental scrutiny. Before we blanket every available rooftop with panels, we must develop comprehensive plans for manufacturing oversight, end-of-life management, and equitable cost distribution. The dark side of our solar revolution demands as much attention as its sunny promise.

The writer is a senior economic correspondent and a freelancer.