Water Uncertainty Raises Fears of Rice Crop Losses in KP Amid India’s Indus Treaty Violations

Growing uncertainty over water availability is raising fears of serious crop losses among rice farmers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa amid repeated violations of the Indus Water Treaty by India.

In Swabi district, where thousands of farmers depend on water from the Indus River and Tarbela Dam, concerns are mounting that any reduction in river flow could severely impact rice production and rural livelihoods. Farmers say an uninterrupted water supply is critical for rice cultivation, particularly during the summer sowing season.

Progressive farmer Zubair Ali, who cultivates five acres of rice land in Margoz village, said small farmers would suffer the most if water availability declines. He said thousands of families in the region depend directly on agriculture and livestock linked to irrigation from the Indus basin.

Experts warned that Pakistan’s agriculture sector is already under pressure from climate change and rising farming costs, while uncertainty surrounding the treaty has created fresh concerns for water-intensive crops, including rice, melons, mangoes, and watermelons. Pakistan produces around 7.5 million tonnes of rice annually and remains among the world’s leading rice-producing countries.

Former Agriculture Research Director General Dr Abdul Rauf said any prolonged disruption in water flow could damage rice production, exports, food security, and rural incomes. He added that the Indus basin also supports fisheries, fruit orchards, livestock, wildlife, and apiculture, making water availability essential for millions of people connected to agriculture and related industries.

Environmental experts and legal analysts also expressed concern over the broader humanitarian and ecological implications of reduced river flows.

Former Conservator of Forests Tauheedul Haq warned that disruptions in coordinated water management could worsen drought conditions, accelerate glacier melt, and increase poverty in vulnerable communities already facing climate-related stress.

Legal experts said unilateral actions affecting water access could violate international law and undermine agreements backed by the World Bank. Analysts also cautioned that rising tensions over water could further destabilize relations between Pakistan and India and threaten regional peace.

Farmers in KP said they remain anxious as they prepare nurseries for rice transplantation while hoping international stakeholders will help preserve the treaty and ensure uninterrupted access to water for millions dependent on the Indus basin system.