Ahsan Gardezi
Historians say, that an infectious outbreak can conclude in more ways than one. But for whom does it end, and who gets to decide? When will Coronavirus End in Pakistan?
Also Read: Making Cloth Masks At Home
A Little History Lesson | The Pandemic Timeline Theory
As the human history has defined age and obscurity in numerous ways, pandemics typically have two types of endings:
- Medical: It occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet
- Social: It occurs when the epidemic of fear about a disease wanes (people fear less)
When my thoughts dawned upon answering this question about ‘When will this virus go away?’, I tried to think in a way that resonates with a reader’s understanding. This question begs a synonymous interpretation: The Ultimate Social Ending.
In general theory, an end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished, but because people grow tired of panic mode and eventually learn to live with it.
As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy – and various lockdown measures in Pakistan and other countries – many questions about the so-called end will be determined not by medical and public health data, but by socio-political processes.
As history has taught us – in battle or plague – one thing never changes, and the forerunners of reforms in our society have decided what that one thing actually means:
Endings are a tricky business, and it all falls down on mankind to make sure that nothing bad comes out of them.
Looking back, we have a weak narrative. So, where do we go when urgency calls for immediate action?
Let’s Dab In Statistics | When Will Coronavirus End
For a background, data-driven innovation lab of Singapore University of Technology and Design carried out analysis of all the pandemic-hit countries; Pakistan included.
A model named SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) was being used to estimate the life cycle of pandemic.
Hundred percent elimination will be possible by December 2020, according to this study. But like fatal diseases that won’t disappear without tasting death, this model might prove to be a little off-putting. The SIR-model relies on mathematical tools that differentiate a set of derivatives on the basis of pre-determined criteria.
If only it were all so simple.
A Sound Theory
People, once recovered, aren’t prone to re-infection and will be issued an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” for going back to work. This has been deliberated by some governments where the virus hasn’t left an indelible mark.
Also, the study has not taken into account the preventive behavior of population required to stop its second wave. Japan’s Island, Hokkaido, is a living example. First, it set an example for other parts of Japan by observing strict lockdown that virtually eliminated coronavirus. As the island was reopened, second wave followed that forced it into lockdown again.
Other than curve flattening, a heat-wave is touted an important factor that could dry out coronavirus, but there is no evidence to suggest that it does. Consider this turns out to be true, what will happen after summer? Another option could be developing herd immunity.
“What is Herd Immunity?”, I here you ask?
Well, herd-immunity is the level of resistance in a population that determines an immunity-stat for people living in the country under examination. However, immunity only works out if 60% of the country’s population is infected. In Pakistan’s case, that’s almost 120 million precedented cases. Another theory predicts the importance of peak in any mathematical plot. A peak determines the maximum outcome for a cause, before an effect is introduced to lower the curve.
Sounds boring, doesn’t it? Well, the effect I mention here is either a vaccine, or an unprecedented natural evolution. In medical terms, science is making rapid advances. New medications and treatments are being developed and introduced at a rapid pace.
But, we can better take advantage of these advances by taking evolution into account. Like all biological systems, both disease-causing organisms and their victims evolve.
While coronavirus has evolved to the extent where general mutation is difficult to navigate, who is to say that the human cells wouldn’t evolve to fight the thing that threatens its existence?
The First Recipient | Coronavirus Vaccine
Well, the first recipient will be the people of the country that manufactures the vaccine, right?
Let’s just say a country makes the COVID vaccine; what next? Simple; this may follow other countries who’re either rich enough to bid high (as in the case of PPEs) or the ones vulnerable enough to necessitate urgency on humanitarian grounds. To you, which scenario seems the most possible outcome?
You can ask around, speculate into bliss, give in to emotions and scream your mind out, but no one can correctly predict the end of Coronavirus.
Tackling Fear | Moving Towards The End
If we are not prepared to fight fear and ignorance as actively and as thoughtfully as we fight any other virus, it is possible that fear can do terrible harm to most people, even in places that never see a single case of infection during an outbreak. And a fear epidemic can have far worse consequences when complicated by issues of race, privilege, and language.
Doesn’t this offer you another food for thought?
Embracing The Truth | A United Front Against COVID-19
It is impossible for the human tongue to recount any awful truth. The truth hurts the most, hence I’ve played this article on the emphasis of truth, rather a speculative hodgepodge to ease the holds that bind your soul.
In theory, a plague follows after pandemics end. Pakistan is trying its best to survive COVID-19 and its effects. The virus will go away, but only if you stand together as a nation and obey all regulations imposed by our government.
Godspeed, and Goodluck!
