good new and good step for mobilink customer

zeeshan u forgot to mention the note mobilink mentioned in their site tat these bundles will be not availabel during both eids nd chandraats. I think pta should teach lesson to mobilink

now a days, every mobile company make the un registered sim as Registered sim by using the name of already Registered consumer, which is very astonished for a lazy person, because he did not know about the a large No. of GSM Sim which are running on his CNIC/name. now a days, terrisim period is passing on, it may be possible for any Hurrayat Pasand person to use it for illegal work. I think , all of us , must be check that how many Sim are registered on our National Identity Card, for this

i have know a way to find it, write your CNIC # on write message option, without dashes and sent it to 668, at the spot, you will receive a message from PTA and No. of registered sim of all Pakistan Mobile Company shown on your mobile phone.

for further detail, send me comments & qurey

Orascom Telecom’s analyst meeting in Paris yesterday with mr Sawiris being as confident as always about the potential for the group and the fact that the market is failing to understand the long term growth. He also highlighted the point that there is fewer and fewer companies left for any predators (which there are plenty of from traditional incumbents to Middle Eastern operators) to snap up in order to grow and he highlighted Millicom and Orascom in this context.

We enclose some key observations in relation to Bangladesh and Pakistan, where Orascom compete with Telenor. Mr Sawaris was confident that there would be consolidation in both markets during 2010. We are encouraged by the comments in relation to both markets and it seems like that both markets have stabilised and there are some positive signs that could open up for a market repair theme in both markets, which has been among the worst in the world in terms of driving down APPM’s. However, on the negative side our sense was not that Telenor is about to exit Pakistan as they are close to signing a tower sharing deal with Orascom in Pakistan.

Bangladesh conclusion: The market fundamentals are improving as prices have been pushed higher and with Orascom focused on profitable growth it bodes well for margins in the market. We are looking for Telenor’s top line growth to slow from 10% in Q2 to 9% in Q3 with margins down from 59.1% to 58.0% and we believe there could be some upside to these estimates. Subscriber growth will not take off until SIM taxes come down substantially and capex is likely to remain at a low level until this happen.

Pakistan conclusion: Market ripe for consolidation (everybody talking to everybody) and China Mobile (Zong) is struggling to gain any traction and according to Orascom’s estimates the subscriber number by Warid in particular are seriously overstated and on their adjusted numbers Orascom has 40% market share with Telenor as the clear nbr two at 25%. Taxes related to telecom has come down as from July (SIM, VAT and handset taxes) and Orascom has rebalanced tariffs (pushed through price increases) which has been followed by Telenor and Ufone. Orascom is very close to signing a tower sharing deal with Telenor, which will leave the remaining players in a more difficult position. The obvious deal is for China Mobile to buy Warid but the price paid by Singtel (EV USD 2.5bn) is an obstacle as CMK is unlikely to pay this. Does not sound like Telenor is about to sell the business but fundamentals are improving and with several of the competitors struggling any consolidation moves will further improve fundamentals.

Bangladesh (5% of Telenor’s Enterprise value and 10% of EBITDA)
The economy has been more resilient than anticipated and the currency has remained pegged to the US with growing foreing exchange reserves supporting the currency. The SIM card tax at USD 13 is still in place even if the Finance minister made some positive comments in relation to the issue, according to Orascom, a couple of weeks ago as they realise that the targets set up for “Digital Bangladesh 2021” is not possible if the SIM tax is maintained at current levels. The 3g process is in Orascom’s view pushed into the future and they not believe the Bangladeshi market to be ready for 3g. Telenor and Orascom pushed prices substantially higher in April and as can be seen from the table below it APPM has increased for the first time ever after having come down by 40% or so for some time and it is still among the lowest in the world at USc1 per minute.

Orascom is focused on profitable growth and they will not get involved in igniting any prices wars. Aktel experienced strong subscriber growth in July as they started to subsidise SIM’s as from the beginning of July and Orascom was running a campaign during two weeks in August to show the regulator that bringing down SIM taxes will drive penetration. Telenor followed Orascom’s lead and did also subsidise SIM’s for two weeks. Aktel stopped subsidising SIM’s in mid September which bode well for margins in the market and it sounds like Orascom’s margins will be sustained in Q3. Orascom is looking for network sharing in Bangladesh and our belief is that they would like to strike a deal with Aktel as their networks complement each other. They believe that their will be consolidation in the market and Orascom’s would like to merge their operation with Aktel creating a company of equal size to Telenor.

APPM in Bangladesh (local currency)

Subscriber performance in Bangladesh

Revenues and EBITDA in Bangladesh

Pakistan (3% of Telenor’s Enterprise value and 3% of EBITDA)
The political tension has now calmed down a bit but the military is running a campaign to rid itself of the terrorists and the recent bombing should be seen in light of this campaign which started in area called SWAT but it is now being transferred to the North.

Support from the IMF, US etc which should ensure that they get financing moving into next year which should allow for economic growth to return. FX reserves have improved from USD 6.6bn a year ago to about USD 14bn in September which should argue for some FX stabalisation. There is hope for an economic recovery in 2010 but not back to the levels pre-crisis.

The Government has taken some positive steps in relation to telecom as from July 1st reducing the SIM tax from 500 ($6) to 250 rupies ($3), bringing down the telecom value added tax from 21% to 19% and duties on handsets from 750 to 250.

Based on Mobilink’s estimates applying the same 90 day cut off real SIM subscribers are 27% below the reported levels leaving the overall market at 69m SIMS at the end of June (41% penetration) with Warid’s subscribers at only 7m (18m reported) down 60% from reported levels and Ufone and Zong down about 40%. The adjustment to Telenor’s numbers is less at about 20%. This leaves Mobilinks market share at 42% with Telenor as a clear nbr 2 at 25% ahead of Ufone at 17% with Warid down to 10% and Zong at 6%. We are a bit puzzeled by the adjustments and it looks like Telenor and Orascom has similar definitions for subscribers and Telenor would have higher ARPU’s than Orascom if we adjust for this which is questionable. (Telenors definition is that if there has been outgoing or incoming traffic or if the SIM has been recharged in the last 90 days while Orascom’s definition is that ther has been a billable event the last 90 days).

Orascom adjusted subscriber numbers

The market is ripe for consolidation with too many players with several of the players struggling and Orascom provided its perspective on the strength and weaknesses of competition. Telenor have managed to establish a strong position in the youth segment while they are very weak in the corporate segment and they are paying higher commission to the dealer channel. Warid has no direction at this point in time and there have been several management changes within the group. Obvious M&A candidate but the problem is the fact that Singtel paid USD 780m for 30% of the businesses (question how much they have actually paid) with an EV of USD 2.5bn China mobile is not prepared to pay this price. Ufone doing ok but have a smaller network. Zong deep pocket with very low prices but they have inferior network quality to competition the only solution is M&A as they are struggling to gain any traction in the market in recent months. The only logical deal in the market is China Mobile buying Warid but the price paid by Singtel is a big hurdle.

Orascom has taken an initiative to rebalance tariffs and push prices higher during the second quarter which has been followed by Telenor and Ufone. APPM is not as low as in Pakistan but at USc 1.5 it is among the lowest in the world. The efforts taken on costs could lead to some APPM stabilisation in the second half of this year.

.Network sharing: Orascom made the comment that they are very close to signing a tower sharing deal with Telenor, which would be positive for both companies and leave competition in an even more vulnerable position.

APPM in Pakistan (local currency)

Subscriber performance in Pakistan

Revenues and EBITDA in Pakistan