Oil Prices Continue to Rise Worldwide, May Reach $100 Before Year End

Oil futures rallied by almost 3% on Monday, lifting both U.S. and global benchmark crude to their highest price settlements in nearly four years.

WTI marked its highest front-month contract settlement since late November 2014, while Brent finish at its highest since late October 2014, according to FactSet data.

Monday’s moves come after Brent crude posted a weekly gain of 5%, based on the front-month contract, while WTI oil saw a weekly climb of 3.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For the month, Brent advanced 6.8%, while the U.S. contract returned 4.9% in September.

Oil markets were firm on Tuesday as well, with Brent crude prices holding near four-year highs reached the previous day as markets adjust to the prospect of tighter supply once the U.S. sanctions against Iran kick in next month.

International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were at $85.02 per barrel at 0255 GMT, up 4 cents from their last close, and not far off the $85.45 peak reached in the previous session, the highest since November 2014.

Brent has risen by around 20 percent from the most recent lows in August. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $75.54 a barrel.

WTI is up by about 17 percent since mid-August.

Sentiment was lifted by a last-gasp deal to salvage NAFTA as a trilateral pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada, rescuing a $1.2 trillion a year open-trade zone that had been about to collapse.

More fundamentally, oil markets have been pushed up by looming U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry, which at its most recent peak this year supplied almost 3 percent of the world’s almost 100 million barrels of daily consumption.

Trade data in Refinitiv Eikon showed Iran’s seaborne exports in September were just 1.9 million barrels per day, the lowest level since mid-2016.

Oil prices continue to climb, supported by the nearing Iran embargo and related supply concerns,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.
“The supply situation looks fragile indeed, as any additional shortfall such as a deterioration of the situation in Venezuela would tighten oil supplies.”