Pakistan’s agriculture sector is the backbone of its economy, employing 60% of the population and providing food and livelihoods for millions of people. However, the sector is facing increasing risks and challenges from climate change, including changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events, and increased pests and diseases.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are affecting crop yields, water availability, and livestock productivity. For instance, prolonged heatwaves and droughts are reducing wheat and maize yields, while heavy rainfall and floods are damaging crops and causing soil erosion. Additionally, pests and diseases such as locust swarms and fungal infections are becoming more prevalent due to changing weather patterns.
Meanwhile, one of the main contributors to climate change in Pakistan is the extensive use of fossil fuels, which emits greenhouse gases (GHG) that trap heat in the upper atmosphere. As a result, the global temperature has risen, leading to global warming and climate change. Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions from the extensive use of fossil fuels.
For the past few years, there has been a noticeable change in the monsoon patterns in northern Pakistan, along with a rise in the frequency of cyclones, which has had an effect on the agricultural industry. Additionally, there has been a significant change in the distribution and intensity of rainfall, with several regions of the nation now receiving less than 250 mm of precipitation annually. Further, livestock is also contributing approximately 41% of the greenhouse gases emission in Pakistan.
Rising sea levels, which further deteriorate living conditions in coastal regions and river deltas, are another factor contributing to regular climate change. Moreover, the rapid melting of glaciers will also affect the amount and reliability of available water for irrigation, as well as changing flood and drought patterns.
Studies have shown a decline in crop yields, mainly in wheat and rice. With the exception of Pakistan’s north, practically all agroclimatic systems were predicted to see a 6% decline in wheat yields and a 15–18% decline in basmati crops.
Furthermore, temperatures are projected to increase by 3°C by 2040, and by the end of the century, temperatures are projected to increase by 5-6°C, resulting in a loss of up to 50% of wheat yields. However, the effects of climate change on crops vary from crop to crop, with cotton being one of the most affected crops. In Pakistan, wheat and rice are the main crops in agriculture. In recent years, the wheat and rice crops have declined by 14.7% and 20.5% respectively due to climate change, while their market price has skyrocketed.
Winter (Rabi) crops will be most affected by climate change since they depend on heavy summer and Kharif rainfall for their production and productivity. In a study, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Austria, estimated that by 2080, the yield of all major crops and grains will decline, with wheat production falling the most. For Pakistan, these predictions are frightening and call for considerable adjustment interferences.
There are ten agroecological zones in Pakistan, divided according to land, climate, soil composition, physiography, and many other elements that can affect agriculture. The major agroecological zones of Pakistan are “Indus Delta, Northern Dry Mountains, Sandy Desert, Dry Western Plateau, Northern Irrigated Plains, Barani (Rain), Southern Irrigated Plains, Wet Mountains, Western Dry Mountains, and Suleiman Piedmont”. Because each of these agroecological zones reacts to the changing climate differently, it is increasingly challenging for crops to achieve a sustainable yield.
Furthermore, Pakistan has different farming systems, including spate irrigation, which involves diverting seasonal stormwater from rivers, valleys, and gullies onto farmland situated at a lower elevation than the floodwater. Crop irrigation techniques are sensitive to water quantity and temperature fluctuations, making them vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. By 2040, it is predicted that agricultural production in Pakistan will reduce by around 8%–10% due to rising temperatures.
Therefore, to overcome these challenges, the government needs to take is investing in research to develop higher-yielding, heat-tolerant, drought-tolerant, and pest-resistant varieties of crops and livestock. Further, building data-driven models to simulate the likely impacts of climate change on different agricultural production systems in agroecological zones will also be crucial to ensure that precise adaptation and mitigation measures are challenged.
One such solution is the concept of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). The climate-smart agriculture aims to catalyze the incorporation of agricultural expansion and climate change resilience to meet food security and growth goals in the face of changing weather and growing food needs. Climate-smart agriculture initiatives deliver sustainable production increases, resilience, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction/elimination, and require preparation to find trade-offs and synergies in productivity, adaptation, and mitigation.
The climate-smart agriculture offers great prospects for Pakistan, where agriculture is of social, economic, and cultural importance. Some CSA measures are already in place across the country, and more efficient and productive farming systems can be achieved by leveraging existing funding, finding additional sources of funding, encouraging inefficient-friendly strategies, and allowing the farm to take action.
The climate-smart agriculture can boost Pakistan’s economy through innovative technologies such as laser land leveling and solar-powered irrigation systems, management adjustments such as crop variance, appropriate planting patterns, and more accurate planting dates. Further, addressing the impacts of climate change requires a plan that includes the use of information technology, GIS techniques, and remote sensing for precision farming practices that improve resource-use efficiency and provide more accurate data on soil, crop, and climate issues to find the perfect patterns to crop for different AEZ. And the only strategy that can help in this situation is moving forward with adopting climate-smart agriculture technologies.
However, climate-smart agriculture requires close collaboration with farmers to adapt their crop management strategies to more sustainable practices that limit the impact of climate change. CSA solutions will not be single, purely mechanical solutions, but will require holistic approaches to crop rotation, fertilization practices, seed selection, and irrigation management. Furthermore, it’s important that the government adopt a new perspective on climate-smart agriculture and create farmer and agricultural-friendly policy that supports sustainable farming.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s agriculture sector is facing increasing risks and challenges from climate change, including changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events, and increased pests and diseases. These changes are affecting crop yields, water availability, and livestock productivity. The concept of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) can boost Pakistan’s economy through innovative technologies and management adjustments. Addressing the impacts of climate change requires a plan that includes the use of information technology, GIS techniques, and remote sensing for precision farming practices.
About the author: Muhammad Farjad who specializes in Plant Breeding and Genetics.
