The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) “Biparjoy” over the east-central Arabian Sea has moved further northward during the last 12 hours. It now lies near Latitude 19.5°N and Longitude 67.7°E at a distance of about 600km south of Karachi, 580km south of Thatta, and 710km southeast of Ormara.
Maximum sustained surface winds are 160-180 Km/hour gusts with 200 Km/hour around the system center and sea conditions are phenomenal around the system center with a maximum wave height of 35-40 feet.
The favorable environmental conditions (sea surface temperature of 30-31°C, low vertical wind shear, and upper-level divergence) are supporting the system to maintain its severity.
Under the existing upper-level steering winds, the ESCS “Biparjoy” is most likely to track further Northward until the 14 June morning, then recurve Northeastward and cross between Keti Bandar (Southeast Sindh) and Indian Gujarat coast on the 15 June afternoon as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS).
PMD’s cyclone warning center in Karachi is continuously monitoring the system and will issue update accordingly.
Possible Impacts
With its probable approach to the southeast Sindh coast, widespread wind-dust/thunderstorm rain with some very heavy/extremely heavy falls accompanied by squally winds of 80-100Km/hour gusting 120km/hour likely in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts during 13-17 June.
Dust/thunderstorm-rain with few heavy falls and accompanied by squally winds of 60-80 Km/hour likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Nawabshah, and Sanghar districts from 14-16 June.
Squally (high intensity) winds may cause damage to loose & vulnerable structures (Kutcha houses) including solar panels etc.
Storm surge of 3-3.5 meters (8-12 feet) is expected at the land falling point (Keti Bandar and around) which can inundate the low-lying settlements.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea till the system is over by 17 June, as the Arabian Sea conditions may get very rough/high accompanied by high tides along the coast.
