The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected $25.0 billion in external financing needs for Pakistan for fiscal year 2023-24.
The Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies issued by IMF states that Pakistan has claimed to have secured adequate financing from international partners to support the economic reform program.
Current projections suggest that with the policies outlined in this MEFP, gross external financing needs for FY24 will amount to approximately $25.0 billion (including the current account), of which about $13.8 billion is amortizations of the public sector.
Ahead of the SBA approval we secured $5.6 billion in additional financing commitments from bilateral, multilateral, and commercial partners, of which over $3 billion has already been disbursed.
Islamabad has also secured commitments from these partners regarding $7 billion in rollovers, $1 billion in refinancing of maturing debt, and $1.2 billion in amortization savings from a debt rearrangement covering some existing external loans.
In line with program financing commitments, key bilateral creditors will at least maintain their exposure to Pakistan.
The Report states that the caretaker government has assured the IMF to meet the primary surplus target of 0.4 percent of GDP.
Additional primary surplus was due to technical delays in releasing power subsidies of PRs 72 billion, which were registered in early October’ the report added. In addition, Pakistan has also faced delays in the expenditure of PSDP; while a total of Rs 137 billion was released, only Rs. 41 billion was spent in FY24Q1.
Against higher spending pressures, federal revenue also performed better than expected. Non-tax revenues witnessed a substantial increase of 124 percent (yoy) as the petroleum levy collection exceeded projections by Rs. 22 billion despite the significant drop in consumption in September.
Likewise, FBR revenue saw a 25 percent (yoy) increase and performed better than projected at the time of the SBA approval, especially with domestic-oriented tax revenue jumping by 36 percent (yoy), although the slow recovery of imports affected revenue collection from import taxes.
