A key UN report has placed Pakistan, with a current population of over 245 million, among the countries expected to see population growth through 2054, potentially peaking in the latter half of the century.
According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan’s population is projected to peak in 2092 at 404.68 million people. The report also forecasts that Pakistan’s population will surpass that of Indonesia in 2048, reaching 331.29 million by then.
Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan experienced an average population growth rate of 2.40%, resulting in an annual increase of about 5.28 million people, pushing the population past 220 million.
The report highlights Pakistan’s high birth rate of 22 births per 1,000 people and notes that few women in Pakistan use birth control, contributing to the rapid population growth.
This population surge is expected to strain water and sanitation systems, create millions of unemployed individuals, and overwhelm health and education systems.
Since 1947, when Pakistan became a sovereign state, its population has grown significantly, partly because more people have moved their families and businesses to the area. The report indicates that Pakistan’s growth rate is about 2.1 percent higher than other countries in the region.
The report predicts that if this growth continues, Pakistan’s population will double from its 2001 level in about 35 years. The current growth rate in Pakistan is close to 2%, but it is expected to halve to less than 1% by 2050, at which point the population is predicted to exceed 300 million.
Globally, the population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before declining to about 10.2 billion.
However, global population changes are uneven, with rapid growth in some areas and rapid aging in others, making reliable population data crucial. The UN Sexual and Reproductive Health Agency (UNFPA) emphasized the importance of this data, highlighting the need to address the needs of marginalized populations.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the importance of accurately counting everyone, stating that “our rich human tapestry is only as strong as its weakest thread.” He noted that effective data systems can help accelerate progress for all.
The 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP), published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to 2100. The WPP is essential for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.
While global fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average than in 1990, nearly a fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility” rates of fewer than 1.4 live births per woman.
By 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, with a projected decline of 14 percent over the next thirty years.
The average age of the global population is increasing, with the number of people aged 65 or older expected to surpass those under 18 by the late 2070s. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a significant increase from 17 percent in 1995.
While high-income countries experience slow growth or population decline, rapid population growth is projected in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This growth will increase demand for resources and exacerbate environmental impacts, especially in regions heavily affected by climate change.
In countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, populations are also expected to increase through 2054, potentially peaking in the second half of the century.
Secretary-General Guterres emphasized that women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights are crucial for sustainable development. Early pregnancies remain a challenge in low-income countries, with 4.7 million babies born to mothers under 18 in 2024, including 340,000 children under 15. Investing in education and delaying marriage and childbearing can improve health outcomes and reduce the investments needed for sustainable development.