Pakistan recorded monthly OMC sales of 1.06 million tons down significantly by 31 percent year-on-year (YoY) and 25 percent month-on-month (MoM) in September 2023, the lowest level since the COVID-19 lockdown in March 2020.
According to Topline Securities, this decline was primarily attributed to record-high prices, smuggled oil from Iran, and lower FO-based power generation.
Pakistan recorded lowest monthly OMC sales of 1mn tons in September 2023, the lowest level since COVID lockdown in March 2020. This decline was primarily attributed to record-high prices, smuggled oil from Iran, and lower FO-based power generation. pic.twitter.com/2HJT7Kaj1p
— Topline Securities (@toplinesec) October 2, 2023
Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales clocked in at 0.97 million tons in September 2023, down 20 percent YoY & 24 percent MoM.
1QFY24 oil sales clock at 3.8 million tons, falling by 15 percent YoY. Ex-FO, Oil sales fell 1 percent YoY to 3.5 million tons.
High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales saw the lowest sales since the COVID lockdown in March 2020, reaching 394,000 tons in September 2023. Sales were down 24 percent YoY and 28 percent MoM due to increasing prices of diesel. HSD prices rose 12 percent from Rs. 293 per litre in August 2023 to Rs. 330 per litre in September 2023.
MS sales have also declined 18 percent YoY and 23 percent MoM to 518,000 tons in September 2023, the lowest since March 2020. This is also due to the big increase in petrol prices resulting in lowered demand. Petrol prices rose by 14 percent from Rs. 290 per litre in August 2023 to Rs. 331 per litre in September 2023.
FO sales for September 2023 fell 72 percent YoY and 28% MoM to 84,000 tons due to lower FO-based power generation.
Among listed entities, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) sales for Sep 2023 declined by 37 percent YoY and 30 percent MoM to 510,000 tons. This was primarily due to overall lowered sales in all sections, but FO was the major reason with a 94 percent fall YoY and 61 percent fall MoM.
Shell Pakistan (SHEL) sales declined by 30 percent YoY and 18 percent MoM to 80,000 tons. Similarly, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales also declined by 13 percent YoY and 18,000 MoM to 123,000 tons.
The brokerage firm believes the recent decline in petrol and diesel prices along with tight security over borders will improve next month’s oil sales.