Fuel prices in Pakistan are expected to see a massive decrease of up to Rs. 18 per liter, with initial estimates suggesting the per liter rates for High-Speed Diesel to fall by Rs. 5-6 and MS Petrol by Rs. 17-18 per liter on October 31.
Assuming that international prices and the resurgent Pakistani Rupee remain in the green for the next couple of days, local petrol and diesel prices may go down to Rs. 297-298 and Rs. 265-266, respectively, in the next fortnightly prices effective from 31 October 2023.
At the last fortnightly review of petroleum prices, the interim government reduced the price of petrol by Rs. 40 per liter and the price of high-speed diesel by Rs. 15.
The Pakistani Rupee’s 28-day win streak versus the US dollar and international rates of HSD and MS falling by $1.3-3.5 per barrel last week are the main factors behind the expected decrease. If correct, this would be the third consecutive decrease in fuel rates after three consecutive hikes.
To recall, between August 15 and September 15, petrol and high-speed diesel prices rose by Rs. 58.43 and Rs. 55.83 per liter, respectively, to a historic Rs. 331-333 per liter at retail until September 30. Later, due to the PKR’s massive recovery from below 300 to above 278, fuel and diesel rates were slashed by Rs. 52 and Rs. 26 per liter, respectively, on the 1st and 15th of October.
Notably, the PKR has depreciated 1 percent to 280.5/$ compared to the last fortnightly average of 277/$, while the prices of WTI, Brent, and Arablight dropped by ~4.3 percent, ~3.2, and ~4.2 percent as compared to last week.
The calculation is based on actual costs in the first 12 days of the current fortnight and estimates for the rest.
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