Rupee Ends 5-Day Win Streak Against US Dollar As IMF Bulls Fade

The Pakistani rupee reversed its 5-day win streak against the US Dollar today after opening trade at 285.75 in the interbank market.

At 11:30 PM, it was bullish, jumping to the 284 level against the greenback after gaining Rs. 1.5 during early-day trade.

Later, the interbank rate dropped back to 285 between 1:30 PM and 2:30 PM before anchoring trends for the remainder of the day. Open market rates across multiple currency counters stood in the 285-286 range today.

At close, the PKR depreciated by 0.05 percent to close at 285.27 after losing 14 paisas against the dollar today.

The rupee closed in the red after five consecutive days of gains today. Traders said today’s reversal is an early sign of rupee depreciation due to an extremely volatile economy and uncertain political environment. “The rupee is near its correct range of 283-286 so any seesaw movements will be normal from hereon out,” one of them said.

Overall, the rupee is down nearly Rs. 68 since January 2023. Since April 2022, it is down over Rs. 115 against the greenback. As per exchange rate movements witnessed today, the PKR has lost 14 paisas against the dollar.

In a key development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the currency market to improve. It now expects the average price of US currency to be slightly less than Rs. 300 by June of next year.

The lender sees the PKR/$ rate trending in the right direction, but a complete restoration to a market-based exchange rate is a priority.

The most recent IMF assumptions indicated that the average exchange rate could be less than Rs. 300 to a dollar by June 2024. This rate is lower than that used in the IMF’s staff-level report in July.

Globally, oil prices dipped (16:00 PKT) on Thursday after OPEC+ producers announced a delay in a meeting on production scheduled for Sunday. Brent crude was down by o.99 percent or $0.81 to $81.15 per barrel while WTI crude fell by $0.71 or 0.92 percent to $76.39 per barrel.

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