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Who Should Take the New Ball for Pakistan in T20 World Cup? [Statistical Analysis]

With the T20I World Cup just around the corner, it is imperative to discuss Pakistan’s new ball pairing in the powerplay, which can be lethal and effective with the new ball while remaining economical at the same time.

Bowling in tandem with the new ball is always an art. It needs chemistry, like running between the wickets, considering that in the past era, we have seen a magical and telepathic symphony between Muhammad Asif and Mohammad Amir in Test cricket.

When the ball swings and seams to the tune of the bowler’s wrist that’s where the magic happens and stumps go for a walk, we will have to see who has the ability to deliver spells of mesmerizing bowling with the new ball in the Pakistan team.

Considering the ICC T20I World Cup is in the USA and Caribbean we will analyze the stats of our new ball bowlers in the Caribbean Premier League (CPL), along with the historical data of new ball bowling, to assess who should take the new ball for Pakistan in the mega-event.

Pakistan has a plethora of options to take the new ball, with the likes of Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Mohammad Amir, Imad Wasim and to everyone’s surprise even Saim Ayub (at some occasions).

It should be noted that Shaheen Shah Afridi has never played in the CPL.

Let’s take a deep dive into the statistical analysis of the four new-ball bowlers.

1. New ball stats since 2020

Mohammad Amir

In the last three years, Mohammad Amir has been a “brick wall” in terms of economy and when it comes to conceding runs in the powerplay. He does not give the batsman any kind of room to work with in the shortest format of the game.

His economy rate is 6.35 and that is even lower than left-arm orthodox spinner Imad Wasim who has an economy rate of 6.71.

In 100 innings with the new ball over the past four years, Amir has 56 scalps to his name and a mercurial dot ball percentage of 58.9 but the most imperative thing here is his immaculate strike rate of 20.6 which means that Amir has a knack for taking wickets in the powerplay. The left arm pacer takes a wicket after every 20 balls.

Naseem Shah 

Many cricketing commentators say that Naseem has an “X factor” in his game, the speed, the nip in his bowling, the seam, and the swing show that the boy has natural talent but can it be backed by stats??

Since 2021, the speedster has played in different leagues like Amir across the globe and he has picked up 25 wickets in 57 innings with the new ball alone.

He has a decent economy rate of 7.05 as a fast bowler and a strike rate of 26.1 in the powerplay, which means that during the powerplay with the new ball, he gets through the batter’s defense after every 26 deliveries. But his dot ball percentage of 57.9% shows what an invaluable bowler he is for the team.

Imad Wasim 

The only spinner in this list who can be an effective new ball bowler in the Caribbean conditions and considering he has won the PSL twice and was also part of the ICC Champions Trophy winning team in 2017, it will be an injustice if Pakistan does not use him with the new ball. He can be lethal in the powerplay as we have seen it on both domestic and international level.

As a left-arm orthodox spinner, since 2020, Imad has an economy rate of 6.71 and in 118 innings he has 50 wickets with a dot ball percentage of 51.7. He takes a wicket after every 22 deliveries with the new ball in powerplay with a strike rate at 22.1.

The allrounder has played leagues all around the world and his recent performances for Islamabad United in their title-winning campaign suggest that his decision to come back from retirement can be great for Pakistan.

Shaheen Shah Afridi 

Despite looking off-color throughout the Australia and New Zealand series since becoming captain Shaheen got his mojo back somewhat in the Pakistan Super League.

The skipper only played 9 matches for Lahore Qalandars but picked up 14 wickets. He was their best bowler, despite a dismal campaign for Lahore in PSL season 9, Shaheen looked like he was back in rhythm.

Since 2020, the T20I captain has picked up 40 wickets in 79 innings with an economy rate of 7.45 while his dot ball percentage is 54.6. He takes a wicket with the new ball in the powerplay after precisely every 4 overs at a Strike Rate of 24.00.

Since 2020

Player Wickets Innings SR Economy Dot Ball %
  Mohammad Amir 56 100 20.6 6.35 58.9%
Imad Wasim 50 118 22.1 6.71 51.7%
Shaheen Afridi 40 79 24.00 7.45 54.6%
Naseem Shah 25 57 26.1 7.05 57.9%

 

2. Overall stats in CPL

Mohammad Amir 

Amir has represented Jamaica Tallawahs and Barbados Royals in the Caribbean Premier League. The left-arm pacer has picked an impressive 43 wickets in 27 innings with a dot ball percentage of 59.7% and a sumptuous Strike Rate of 13.2 while his economy rate is at 6.50.

The 32-year-old has ruled with his brilliance in the Caribbean conditions and it seems like he can be the go-to man with the new ball in West Indies.

Naseem Shah 

Saint Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the only franchise in the Caribbean which Naseem Shah has played in the CPL and since 2021, he has played only one season with 7 matches for the Caribbean side. He has picked up 6 wickets with an economy rate of 7.68 and a strike rate of 25.00. His dot ball percentage is lower as well at 47.3% but it is too early to determine how he will fare in the World Cup on those pitches and conditions considering the sample size of his data is low.

Imad Wasim 

In 28 innings for the Jamaica Tallawahs since 2021, Imad has picked up 39 wickets with an economy rate of 6.41 and an immaculate strike rate of 15.8 which means he knows how to bamboozle the batsman in the Caribbean conditions.

With a dot ball percentage of 50.8%, stats show that Imad Wasim and Mohammad Amir have experience in the particular Caribbean conditions and pitches and they have the skillset that can propel Pakistan to glory in the ICC T20 World Cup this year.

Player Wickets Innings SR Economy Dot Ball %
  Mohammad Amir 43 27 13.2 6.50 59.7%
Imad Wasim 39 28 15.8 6.41 50.8%
Naseem Shah 6 7 25.0 7.68 47.3%

 

3. Imad Wasim in Major League Cricket (USA)

The star allrounder also played some matches in Major League Cricket for the Seattle Orcas where he took 10 scalps in 7 innings during his first season with an impressive economy rate of 6.33 and a brilliant strike rate of 14.5.

As a spinner, his dot ball percentage was 51% on the United States pitches which shows that he was effective not only in the Caribbean but also in the USA where Pakistan will eventually lock horns with their arch-rivals India on 9th June.

Conclusion:

Historically the pitches in the Caribbean are pretty slow compared to those in Australia, England, New Zealand, and South Africa. Spinners and fast bowlers can get help from the conditions if they hit the right line and length while on some surfaces they will need to hit the deck hard.

Although recent matches in the USA between India and West Indies have shown signs of pace and bounce where the ball has skidded off the surface.

Keeping the conditions and pitches in mind, the stats suggest that Imad Wasim and Mohammad Amir can be abs0lutely lethal with the new ball in the powerplay as a pair while Shaheen and Naseem can be used as ‘first change’ after 4 overs.

But considering Shaheen’s ability to pick up wickets in the first over, we will go with him and Mohammad Amir in the first 4 overs utilizing Imad Wasim and Naseem Shah as the first change.

The captain surely has a headache with selection and choices here but let us know in the comments below who will bowl with the new ball in your opinion.



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