Inflation Witnesses Highest Ever Monthly Increase in 30 Years

Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index-based inflation increased by 21.32 percent on a year-on-year basis in June 2022 compared to an increase of 13.8 percent in the previous month and 13.4 percent in May 2021, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

This is the highest-ever monthly increase in the past thirty years and the highest-ever CPI-based inflation recorded since 2008. Similarly, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is at 38.9 percent, which is the highest ever in Pakistan’s history.

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it increased by 6.3 percent in June 2022 compared to an increase of 0.4 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.1 percent in May 2021.

Economic analyst, A. H. H. Soomro, told ProPakistani,

CPI depicts a sad reality. It is shocking how we have mismanaged the economy. The middle and lower classes will be severely hurt. The next few months have more pain to offer. This might set the stage for a 50 to 75-bps hike.

Inflation in the last fiscal year 2021-22 averaged 12.15 percent against 8.9 percent during the same period of the corresponding year i.e. 2020-21.

CPI inflation Urban, increased by 19.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 12.4 percent in the previous month and 9.6 percent in June 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 6.2 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.3 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.4 percent in June 2021.

CPI inflation Rural, increased by 23.6 percent on a year-on-year basis in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 15.9 percent in the previous month and 9.7 percent in June 2021. On month-on-month basis, it increased by 6.6 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.6 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.1 percent in June 2021.

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased by 21.7 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 14.1 percent a month earlier and an increase of 17.6 percent in June 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 6.2 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.6 percent a month earlier and a decrease of 0.4 percent in June 2021.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on a YoY basis increased by 38.9 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 29.6 percent a month earlier and an increase of 20.9 percent in June 2021. WPI inflation on an MoM basis increased by 8.2 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 1.4 percent a month earlier and an increase of 0.9 percent in the corresponding month i.e. June 2021.

According to the PBS data, the prices of food and non-food items including Tomatoes, Potatoes, Eggs, Cooking Oil, Vegetable Ghee, Pulse Masoor, Wheat, Rice, Milk, Electricity Charges, Motor Fuels, Construction Input Items, Stationery, Motor Vehicles Accessories, Cleaning & Laundering, Liquefied Hydrocarbons, and woolen Cloth increased.

Measured by non-food and non-energy Urban increased by 11.5 percent on a YoY basis in June, 2022 as compared to an increase of 9.7 percent in the previous month and 6.7 percent in June 2021. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 2.0 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.7 percent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. June 2021.

Measured by non-food non-energy Rural increased by 13.6 percent on a YoY basis in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 11.5 percent in the previous month and 7.3 percent in June 2021. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 2.3 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.9 percent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.4 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. June 2021.

Measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean Urban increased by 16.7 percent on a YoY basis in June 2022 as compared to 10.7 percent in the previous month and 9.4 percent in June 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 3.5 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.8 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. June, 2021.

Measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean Rural increased by 19.1 percent on a YoY basis in June, 2022 as compared to 14.1 percent in the previous month and by 9.8 percent in June 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 4.3 percent in June 2022 as compared to an increase of 1.4 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. June 2021.

Food

The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among the food that registered an increase are potatoes (34.64 percent), Eggs (19.98 percent), Pulse Masoor (17.42 percent), Mustard Oil (17.39 percent), Pulse Gram (14.03 percent), Gram whole (13.62 percent), Wheat (13.03 percent), Vegetable Ghee (12.86 percent), Rice (11.67 percent), Besan (9.36 percent), Tomatoes (9.03 percent), Milk (8.18 percent), Cooking Oil (7.91 percent) and Fruits (7.69 percent) and decreased among Chicken (7.83 percent), Wheat Flour (3.76 percent) and Vegetables (3.54 percent).

Non-Food Increased: Electricity Charges (51.80 percent), Motor Fuel (37.13 percent), Footwear (8.82 percent), Stationery (8.29 percent), Construction Input Items (5.26 percent), Motor Vehicle Accessories (4.40 percent), Plastic Products (3.87 percent), Washing Soap/Detergents/Match Box (3.80 percent) and Carpets (3.03 percent).

The top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. June 2021 are given below.

Food Increased: Onions (124.30 percent), Tomatoes (121.72 percent), Mustard Oil (81.82 percent), Vegetable Ghee (76.71 percent), Pulse Masoor (74.32 percent), Cooking Oil (70.8 percent), Gram whole (57.49 percent), Chicken (47.52 percent), Fruits (38.63 percent), Pulse Gram (31.95 percent), Wheat (31.86 percent), Meat (26.08 percent), Rice (25.9 percent), Besan (24.96 percent), Beans (21.74 percent) and Milk (21.29 percent) and decreased among Condiments & Spices (20.11 percent), Pulse Moong (18.46 percent) and Sugar (11.28 percent).

Among non-foods that increased are Motor Fuel (95.74 percent), Liquefied Hydrocarbons (60.95 percent), Electricity Charges (34.65 percent), Stationery (30.75 percent), Cleaning and Laundering (30.25 percent), Washing Soap/Detergents/Match Box (22.63 percent), Motor Vehicle Accessories (21.9 percent), Plastic Products (20.68 percent), Footwear (19.33 percent), Household Equipments (18.92 percent), Construction Input Items (18.35 percent) and Cotton Cloth (15.71 percent).

The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to rural CPI and which increased among food items are Tomatoes (27.70 percent), Potatoes (25.85 percent), Eggs (19.96 percent), Cooking Oil (18.27 percent), Vegetable Ghee (17.16 percent), Pulse Masoor (14.47 percent), Mustard Oil (13.24 percent), Gram Whole (11.75 percent), Pulse Gram (11.14 percent), Wheat (9.83 percent), Rice (9.75 percent), Onions (8.75 percent), Besan (8.36 percent), Milk (7.19 percent), Pulse Mash (7.13 percent), Pulse Moong (5.14 percent) and Sugar (2.30 percent) and decreased among Chicken (11.10 percent), Wheat Flour (4.01 percent), Fruits (3.54 percent) and Vegetables (0.33 percent)

Non-Food

Among non-food items which increased our electricity Charges (51.80 percent), Motor Fuels (40.05 percent), Construction Input Items (8.97 percent), Stationery (6.14 percent), Motor Vehicles Accessories (6.13 percent), Cleaning & Laundering (5.14 percent), Liquefied Hydrocarbons (4.43 percent), Solid Fuel (3.71 percent), Furniture & Furnishing (3.62 percent), Tailoring (3.25 percent) and Woolen Cloth (3.11 percent).

Year-on-Year: Top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. June 2021 are given below.

Food Increased: Onions (175.59 percent), Tomatoes (149.57 percent), Cooking Oil (88.28 percent), Vegetable Ghee (86.34 percent), Mustard Oil (78.06 percent), Pulse Masoor (73.93 percent), Gram Whole (65.36 percent), Fruits (40.93 percent), Chicken (33.62 percent), Wheat (30.22 percent), Vegetables (27.27 percent), Pulse Gram (27.10 percent), Besan (26.41 percent), Meat (26.38 percent), Beans (25.41 percent), Rice (24.83 percent), Milk (19.66 percent) and Pulse Mash (17.77 percent). Decreased: Pulse Moong (14.64 percent), Condiments & Spices (11.58 percent), Sugar (10.3 percent), and Gur (0.98 percent).

Non-Food Increased: Motor Fuels (99.44 percent), Liquefied Hydrocarbons (63.49 percent), Electricity Charges (34.65 percent), Cleaning & Laundering (28.36 percent), Construction Input Items (28.34 percent), Motor Vehicles Accessories (26.48 percent), Stationery (21.56 percent), Solid Fuel (20.19 percent), Hosiery (19.16 percent), Furniture & Furnishing (18.94 percent), Household Equipments (17.62 percent), Plastic Products (17.37 percent) and Readymade Garments (15.02 percent).

The top few commodities which varied from the previous month and contributed to the WPI inflation and hike are Diesel Oil (57.36 percent), Potatoes (56.51 percent), Kerosene Oil (50.83 percent), Motor Spirit (44.85 percent), Footwear (41.34 percent), Lighting Equipment (31.88 percent), Glass sheets (25.73 percent), Eggs (24.49 percent), Vegetable Ghee (19.25 percent), Electric Wires (18.28 percent), Vegetable Oil (17.5 percent), Milk (17.09 percent), Maize (16.13 percent), Coal (13.97 percent), Wheat (13.17 percent), Steel Bar & Sheets (11.02 percent), Oil Seeds (10.85 percent), Pulses (10.75 percent) and Cement (10.17 percent). Decreased: Poultry (8.73 percent), Spices (7.43 percent), Jowar (6.86 percent), and Stimulant & Spice Crops (5.42 percent).

Year-on-Year: Top few commodities which varied from the previous year are given below.

Increased: Kerosene Oil (142.97 percent), Diesel Oil (130.8 percent), Chuff Cutter (129.36 percent), Concrete Mixture (123.42 percent), Furnace Oil (118.13 percent), Motor Spirit (109.78 percent), Vegetable Ghee (93.36 percent), Oil Seeds (80.77 percent), Coal (79.42 percent), Chemicals (72.32 percent), Cultivators (68.18 percent), Fibre Crops (68.13 percent), Vegetable Oil (63.18 percent), Bed Foam (59.06 percent), Pulses (52.76 percent), Poultry (51.52 percent), Cement (48.85 percent), Steel Bar & Sheets (48.61 percent), Fertilizers (48.34 percent), Air Conditioners (46.09 percent) and Vegetables (41.60 percent). Decreased: Stimulant & Spice Crops (44.39 percent), Spices (40.58 percent), Bajra (12.31 percent), and Sugar (9.28 percent).



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