Foreign Loans Decline by 36% in 11 Months Amid IMF Holdout

Pakistan is expected to make more efforts to convince the International Monetary Fund for a bailout in Paris this week as government borrowing falls by 36 percent to $8.613 billion during the first eleven months (July-May) of 2022-23 compared to $13.539 billion borrowed during the same period of last fiscal year.

According to media reports, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has requested a meeting with the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the Paris summit for a new Global Financial Pact.

However, the $8.613 billion does not include the rollover of friendly countries’ deposits amounting to $6 billion (i.e. $3 billion each from China and Saudi Arabia), and the re-financing of a Chinese loan of $1.3 billion.

The Economic Affairs Division data shows that the country borrowed $900 million from foreign commercial banks during the 11 months of the current fiscal year 2022-23 including $700 million in February. However, no loans were borrowed from foreign commercial banks during May 2023. The country received $2.623 billion from foreign commercial banks during the same period last year.

The country received $1.166 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the first 11 months (July-May) of 2022-23. Contrary to past practices, the EAD has also listed the loans taken from the IMF. If the IMF loan is excluded, then the country received $7.447 billion during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year compared to $13.539 billion during the same period of the last fiscal year, indicating the slowdown in inflows.

The government procured $491.69 million in external loans in May 2023. The country received $742.94 million under the head of “Naya Pakistan Certificate” during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year including $65.70 million in May 2023.

The government has budgeted foreign assistance of $22.817 billion for the current fiscal year including $7.5 billion for foreign commercial banks.

The country received $4.453 billion from multi-laterals, $1.350 billion from bilateral and $1.166 billion from IMF during July-May 2022-23. The non-project aid was $6.816 billion including $5.557 billion for budgetary support and project aid was $1.796 billion.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) disbursed $2.036 billion during the period under review compared to the budgeted $3.202 billion for the entire fiscal year. ADB disbursed $61.66 million in May 2023.

China disbursed $128.03 million during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year including $0.14 million in May against the budgeted $49.02 million for the entire fiscal year.

China had disbursed $54.93 million during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, however, no money was received in October, November, December, January, February, and March.

Saudi Arabia disbursed $1.082 billion against the budgeted $800 million under the head of the oil facility during the first 11 months. The USA disbursed $30.23 million during the period under review against the budgeted $32.49 million for the current fiscal year. Korea disbursed $22.59 million and France $32.88 million during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year.

The IDA disbursed $1.389 billion against the budgeted $1.388 billion during the first 11 months including $217.44 million in May, IBRD $170.32 million against the budgeted $1.246 billion and Islamic Development Bank disbursed $16.81 million against the budgeted $3.38 million for the current financial year.

IsDB (Short-term) disbursed $161 million in the current fiscal year. AIIB disbursed $555.96 million in the current fiscal year so far, while ECO (Trade Bank) disbursed $64.59 million.