Since the revision of Federal Excise Duty (FED) tobacco products with an increase of more than 200 percent in FY 22/23, the tobacco sector has swelled to more than 63 percent of the total volume of cigarettes resulting in the illicit sector outgrowing the legitimate sector, revealed the data shared by Pakistan Tobacco Company Limited (PTC)’s representatives on Thursday in a media interaction.
Government-led national anti-illicit tobacco strategy and revitalizing the dedicated enforcement task force could help reduce illegal trade in the tobacco sector and help grow government revenues, PTC representatives stressed.
The loss of potential government tax revenue to the black economy is estimated to be more than USD 1 billion or more than Rs. 300 billion, Qasim Tariq, the Senior Business Development Manager for PTC said while sharing the data.
For the first time in Pakistan’s history, potential government revenue loss due to the illicit sector would surpass the total revenue to be collected from the legitimate industry in FY23/24.
It is expected that a volume of more than 11 billion cigarettes would be lost by the legitimate tobacco sector due to downtrading by consumers to tax-evaded and smuggled cigarettes.
PTC representatives showcased month-by-month shipment data since FY21/22. Volumes of the legitimate sector have reduced by more than 55 percent from January 2023 till June 2023, raising concerns about business sustainability.
Commenting on recent media reports suggesting a boost to government revenue collections from the tobacco industry, Tariq said that the on-ground situation needed to be factored in to develop a comprehensive policy to tackle this menace. Without any enforcement, revenue generation from the legitimate tobacco sector would only be short-lived as an increase in excise would only lead to putting business sustainability at risk. “Increasing tax rates on cigarettes has no impact on the illicit sector which is not a part of the tax system to begin with,” he added.
Referring to the proposals about increased excise rates on imported cigarettes he said that likely would have no impact as all foreign cigarette brands were smuggled through illegal channels. Similarly, when there had been minimal to no adoption of the already established track and trace system, rolling out an effective digitized stamp system would also likely meet the same fate.
Tariq highlighted that the key to reigning in the menace of illicit trade rested on a healthy mix of appropriate fiscal measures and effective and across-the-board enforcement.
