Pakistan finds itself under siege by the TTP, as the group continues to wreak havoc on the populace and destabilize the fragile political landscape through a series of attacks on civilians and security officials both along the Pak-Afghan border and within the country. The need for a unified response from the state has become pressing as the continued spread of terrorism threatens to disrupt the country and destroy its weakened economy.
The TTP’s latest attack targeted the Police Lines mosque in northwestern Peshawar city and resulted in the deaths of over 80 people and injuries to over 150, mostly police officers. The attack was claimed as a retaliatory act by the brother of Umar Khalid Khurasani, a member of the Mehsud chapter of TTP, in response to the death of his brother in Afghanistan last August.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the incident, saying “Terrorists seek to instill fear by targeting those who defend Pakistan.” To improve the provinces’ anti-terror capacities, he announced that a new counter-terrorism plan will be implemented.
The Re-emergence of TTP
Pakistan finds itself under siege by the TTP, as the group continues to wreak havoc on the populace and destabilize the fragile political landscape through a series of attacks on civilians and security officials both along the Pak-Afghan border and within the country. The need for a unified response from the state has become pressing as the continued spread of terrorism threatens to disrupt the country and destroy its weakened economy.
The TTP’s latest attack targeted the Police Lines mosque in northwestern Peshawar city and resulted in the deaths of over 80 people and injuries to over 150, mostly police officers. The attack was claimed as a retaliatory act by the brother of Umar Khalid Khurasani, a member of the Mehsud chapter of TTP, in response to the death of his brother in Afghanistan last August.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the incident, saying “Terrorists seek to instill fear by targeting those who defend Pakistan.” To improve the provinces’ anti-terror capacities, he announced that a new counter-terrorism plan will be implemented.
Following the collapse of Ashraf Ghani’s administration in August 2021, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan and established an interim government. With Pakistan’s alliance with the Taliban, many, including former Prime Minister Imran Khan, believed that Islamabad had secured its Western border. However, this was an erroneous assumption. Now, over a year and a half later, the Pak-Afghan border is often the site of confrontations between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani military forces. The most ominous outcome of the Taliban’s control in Afghanistan has been the resurgence of the TTP, which has grown bolder and more uncompromising due to its belief in the propensity of the Pakistani security apparatus to placate the group.
In the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, acts of suicide bombing, selective assassinations, demands for tribute, and assaults on critical security installations have become persistent since the TTP proclaimed the end of a tenuous truce in November of the previous year. Fatalities from terrorist attacks rose by 25% in 2022, according to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies. The TTP claimed to have carried out 367 strikes in Pakistan in 2022, resulting in the deaths of 1,105 security officials and informants. Over a third of these attacks happened in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
The two most audacious attacks were in the capital in the last week of December last year, killing two police officers, and the suicide bombing at the Police Lines mosque in Peshawar. These attacks convey the clear warning that Pakistan faces a daunting challenge in countering the rising tide of terrorism along its western frontier and the malicious intentions of the perpetrators extend to all.
Partners in Crime: TTP and Afghanistan’s Conservative Islamic Regime
The TTP, since the Taliban’s conquest of Kabul, has risen like a phoenix, wielding potency greater than ever before. After the fall of Kabul, the Taliban leadership freed a huge number of fighters who had been imprisoned by the prior Afghan government, including prominent TTP leaders. Additionally, it appears that the Taliban regime has offered a de facto political refuge and unrestricted mobility to the TTP’s upper echelon within Afghanistan, providing them with a strategic platform from where they conduct their terror operations in Pakistan.
The Afghan Taliban serves as the veritable mothership of the TTP’s movement, a fount of inspiration and guidance for their fervent and fanatical cause. The TTP venerates the Afghan Taliban as a model insurgency, an exemplar of the art of war and the science of subversion. The TTP has taken cues from the Afghan Taliban’s tactics, emulating their methods and adapting them to their circumstances, as they strive towards their ultimate goal of destabilizing the state and realizing their radical vision. The Afghan Taliban is the progenitor of the TTP’s ideology, the nurturer of their ambitions, and the embodiment of their spirit of rebellion.
Furthermore, The TTP’s chief, Noor Wali Mehsud, has vociferously re-affirmed his loyalty to the Afghan Taliban’s revered leader, Maulvi Hibatullah Akhundzada, and proclaimed the TTP to be an integral part of the Taliban’s broader movement. With this bold and brazen declaration, Mehsud has cemented the TTP’s place as a formidable and fanatic branch of the Afghan Taliban in Pakistan.
The Afghan Taliban, for their part, have been elusive when asked about the current situation and the future of the TTP in Afghanistan, and they have not committed to carrying out a crackdown even though the group has been violent toward Pakistan.
Terrorist acts in Pakistan have, unsurprisingly, skyrocketed since the Taliban retook power in Afghanistan. In lieu of taking direct action against the militants, the Afghan Taliban have consistently demanded that Pakistan address the TTP’s resentments and volunteered to act as a mediator in peace negotiations.
It is obvious that the hardline Islamic government in Afghanistan continues to protect thousands of TTP fighters. The Taliban’s return to power has given the TTP and other transnational militant organisations operating out of Afghanistan more confidence. The TTP, which had previously been divided into several factions, has reportedly been reunified and equipped with the assistance of the Afghan Taliban. They appear to have improved their level of organisation and equipment than earlier.
Are Kinetic Military Operations Still Viable Options?
At the National Security Committee meeting held last month, the ruling coalition reached a decisive conclusion to confront the re-emerging terrorist threat with resolute determination. After exhaustively exploring all possible avenues for dialogue with the TTP, including leveraging the influence of tribal leaders, religious scholars, and even the Afghan Taliban, it was unanimously agreed that further communication with these extremist elements was no longer an option.
“Pakistan’s security is uncompromisable and the full writ of the state will be maintained on every inch of Pakistan’s territory,” the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said after the meeting.
The prospect of a military operation against the TTP within Pakistani borders has been the subject of hushed whispers and murmurs, as talks with the extremist group have fallen off the table. However, this option appears less viable as the TTP no longer holds any territorial stronghold within Pakistan as it once did. The challenge of rallying public support for such a massive operation is also formidable, as the consequences of such an endeavor, including collateral damage, are always high and potentially devastating.
The option of taking the fight to the TTP deep within Afghanistan, as suggested by the country’s Interior Minister Rana Sana Ullah, presents yet another conundrum. This path, too, is shrouded in uncertainty and doubt, with logistical challenges that are formidable and risks that are high. The potential outcome of this venture is far from clear, especially given the current economic struggles faced by Pakistan. The situation is complex, and the road ahead is filled with unknowns, making this option a murky and uncertain one. The dilemma of how best to address the resurgent terrorist threat continues to loom large, as the search for a solution that balances efficacy with practicality remains elusive.
The Way Forward
The TTP’s resurgence is palpable, and their primary demand is an uncompromising one for the Pakistani state. The hour has struck for Pakistan to embark upon a fearless and unwavering course of action towards this extremist group, as the price of procrastination is getting higher each day.
In addressing the resurging TTP, Pakistan should not resort to either a full-scale military operation or venture beyond its borders into Afghanistan in pursuit of its sanctuaries. Rather, the country should amplify its counterterrorism efforts in the tribal regions where the alarm is growing over the TTP’s return, as the extremist group heightens its militant activities.
While employing military might against the TTP, it is crucial that Pakistan concurrently amplifies its diplomatic endeavors and collaborates with regional and global powers to exert pressure on the Afghan Taliban to deny foreign extremists, including the TTP, refuge in Afghanistan. The existence of safe havens for terrorists, be it the TTP or others, in Afghanistan will eventually pose a threat to neighboring countries. Thus, appealing to the security interests of nations such as India and the United States could garner support for Pakistan’s cause.
Moreover, instead of serving as a megaphone for the Afghan Taliban in the international community, as it did in the past to attain the conservative regime recognition, Pakistan should make persistent efforts to impede the Afghan Taliban’s pursuit of international legitimacy they have been yearning since their conquest of Kabul. By pursuing this strategy, the Afghan Taliban will be compelled to hold the TTP accountable for its violent campaign against Pakistan.
Since the government’s war on terrorism against the TTP has been fought exclusively in Pashtun-populated territories like KP and the former FATA region, resulting in the deaths of countless Pashtuns and the uprooting of millions more, the government must address the widespread disaffection and anger of this ethnic group who see themselves as victims of the conflict. For this reason, the government must allocate resources to the Pashtun community’s growth, restore their means of livelihood, and promote access to education to end discrimination and poverty in the region.
It would also be advantageous for the state to set aside its current animosity towards Pashtun Nationalistic Groups, such as PTM, and harness its animosity towards terrorism to thwart any potential recruitment efforts by the TTP.
Amidst the multi-faceted crisis that has befallen Pakistan, with its economy in a downward spiral and political instability impeding its proper functioning, the country finds itself once at a juncture of existential peril. In response, its civilian and military leaders must act swiftly and deliberately in addressing the threat posed by the TTP. This requires a reconsideration of the nation’s Afghanistan policy and a concerted focus on fortifying security through the implementation of measures such as border fencing. Additionally, our leaders must advance intra-regional and cross-regional economic integration with Pakistan serving as a cornerstone. Such integration, if successfully pushed for, has the potential to enhance the nation’s standing and further solidify its position as a driving force within the broader economic landscape.
About the Author
Asif Abbas. He is a Lecturer of English Literature at a Public Sector College in KP.
