The Complete In-Depth Data Analysis of Babar Azam’s T20 Career

Babar Azam, the captain of Pakistan’s T20 team, is undoubtedly one of the best batters in the world. However, his strike rate in the T20 format has often been a point of criticism. Many have argued that Babar’s slow-paced batting is not well-suited for the fast-paced nature of T20 cricket. Despite scoring over 4000 runs in T20Is, Babar’s batting approach has come under fire amid Pakistan’s failure to post big scores in recent years. His pragmatic style during the powerplay overs, where he has a surprisingly low strike rate of just 86.91 in T20 World Cup innings, has been a major topic of discussion.

Some experts have even gone as far as saying Babar should not play T20 cricket at all due to his inability to consistently clear the boundary, especially during the powerplay. However, a closer look at Babar’s numbers reveals an anomaly – he has an impressive 11 centuries in T20 cricket. This suggests his batting may be more well-suited to the format than commonly perceived.

This research paper aims to provide an in-depth, data-driven analysis of Babar’s T20 batting performances compared to other elite batters. It will examine his innings-by-innings stats, year-over-year evolution, and how his approach stacks up in high-pressure matches. The goal is to gain a clearer picture of Babar’s true impact and suitability for T20 cricket beyond the surface-level strike rate criticism.

Through a comprehensive analysis of batting statistics, including runs scored, strike rates, and centuries, coupled with a critical review of his innings against various opponents and weighing his performances in different metrics, we will try to unfold his numbers. This study aims to present a nuanced understanding of Babar Azam’s role and effectiveness in T20 cricket. By delving into these aspects, the paper will challenge existing narratives and provide insights into the true nature of his contributions to the format.

Numbers Game

In cricket, with every passing day, there is a debate over the par score in a certain format of the game. With the format getting shorter and shorter for the spectators to conclude the match as soon as possible, the expectations from the batters have been increasing simultaneously.

T20 cricket is the shortest format of the international game, though the format has become even shorter with England’s prime league “The Hundred” and the “T10” format, where 100 and 60 balls respectively are given to a batting team to just throw their bat at the balls they receive.

In international cricket, the shortest format is T20, where batters get a mere 120 balls to spare on 10 wickets, normally 12 balls per wicket. So now, in these 12 balls, there are two things a batter can do: one is to hit the ball with as much power as he/she has, or just block it or leave the ball. The first option is what most batters normally do. Among those shots, some are considered touch shots, with no aim of hitting the ball towards the boundary, and some are considered attacking shots, which show your intent to play a shot with much force (excluding the shots which require pace on the ball to send it behind the wicket, such as ramp or reverse ramp shots; they will be considered attacking shots).

The intent of shots matters for now; at least you must be trying your best to send the ball to the boundary line amid the time when you only get 12 balls to spare for one wicket, trying to accumulate as many runs as possible. Keep in mind that attacking shots don’t mean the ball should go in the air for some time to count it as an attacking shot. The following shots are counted as attacking shots: cut shot, flick, on drive, pull, steer, square drive, straight drive, slog shot, upper cut, sweep shot, hook, reverse sweep, pull hook on back foot, sweep, cut shot on back foot, slog sweep, paddle sweep, ramp, reverse pull, paddle away, and reverse scoop.

Every time a captain from the losing side speaks in the post-match conversation, they often say something like, “We were unfortunately 15–20 runs short.” They rarely mention getting bowled out or other specific reasons for the loss.

The Data-Driven Dynamics of T20 Cricket: A Game of Plunderers

In the ever-evolving landscape of T20 cricket, an analysis of first innings scores reveals intriguing trends that underscore the high-risk, high-reward nature of the game. A detailed examination of first innings scores from 100 to 240+ highlights a fascinating pattern: with every 10-run increase, there is a notable rise in boundary counts, emphasizing the aggressive strategies employed by batsmen.

Boundary Bonanza

The data indicates that for every incremental 10 runs, there is an approximate increase of half a six and one four.

This trend is evident across the entire range of scores, from 100 to 240+. For instance, teams scoring between 100–109 average 7.95 fours and 2.68 sixes. As scores rise to the 140–149 range, the averages jump to 12.14 fours and 4.90 sixes, and they further escalate to 22.28 fours and 16.72 sixes in the 240+ range. This surge in boundaries underlines the aggressive batting approach that defines T20 cricket, where quick runs are prioritized to set imposing totals. The average total runs by boundaries exceed those by running as the total runs range increases, highlighting the importance of boundaries in achieving higher scores in T20 cricket.

Stability in Running Runs

Interestingly, the contributions from running runs (singles, doubles, and triples) remain relatively stable across different score ranges. For scores exceeding 140 runs (from 100–240+), the total runs by running fluctuate minimally, ranging from 57 to 61 (increased by just 4). This consistency illustrates that no matter how many runs you accumulate at the end of the innings, if anything makes a difference, it’s boundary scoring. The team that scores more boundaries in their allocated resources of 120 balls scores big and eventually ends up winning. Higher run ranges are heavily influenced by a higher average number of boundaries, particularly fours and sixes.

Risk and Reward

Another significant finding is the increase in false shots with higher scores. As teams strive to achieve higher totals, the frequency of false shots, such as edges and mistimed strokes, and uncontrolled shots also rises. For instance, the average false shot count climbs from 31 in the 100–109 range to 72 in the 240+ range. It suggests that higher targets are set at the expense of false shots. This trend indicates that batsmen are taking more risks to capitalize on scoring opportunities, reflecting the high-stakes environment of T20 cricket where aggressive play is often rewarded.

Here is the attacking shots percentage of Babar Azam over the years. In the graph is the attacking shots percentage and its effect on Babar’s numbers over the years.

Babar has almost around 6% of his runs on false shots in his career. False shots are considered those shots where the batter wants to hit the ball in one direction, and it goes in another by taking an edge or maybe due to the swing or spin of the bowler. Over the years, 2020 was the best year for Babar as far as control over a shot is concerned when he had a mere 2.74 % of his runs on false shots. Babar’s total shots in 2020 were 9.2% false, on which he got around 2.74 % of his total runs. That year, Babar played around 42 out of 100 shots as attacking ones. And a mere 46 % of his runs were scored on those attacking shots. On those 42 shots per 100 balls, Babar had 15 % as not in controlled shots. In 2023, Babar scored around 963 runs in 28 innings with a strike rate of 131, where he hit a total of 108 fours and 15 sixes.

2021 saw a little surge in his false shots runs percentage, where every 8 runs in his 100 runs were from false shots, and his every 19 shots were not in control out of 100. This year saw him playing with better intent than the previous year. He was actually attacking 61 shots out of 100 balls compared to 42 in 2020. From these shots, he got 69 % of his total runs that year.

(As we discussed earlier for a T20 innings construction, the thing that matters is the false shot. From an innings of 150 runs to an innings of 220 runs, the major differences are the false shots. The running runs almost remain the same for all the scores from 110 to 240. The major difference in boundary runs is gotten at the expense of false shots.)

2022 was even better than 2021. His 69 out of 100 shots were attacking, and 84 % of his runs came from attacking shots. The risk was there because, at one time in 2020, when he was just attacking 40 odd balls out of a hundred, he played a mere 2 % of his shots as false. This year, his false shots were 8.5 per hundred balls. 2023 was the year where he played the most number of false shots, almost 10 shots per 100 balls were false, meaning he was taking a good risk to elevate his strike rate.

65 out of 100 shots were attacking that year, and around 78 % of his runs he lured through attacking shots and playing with more risk than in previous years. 2024 has been the best year so far, where he has seen taking more risks and attacking the ball like never before. 83 out of his 100 shots are attacking, almost double when he was playing with much better control in 2020. So this year has seen a bit of intent from his side. 6 out of 100 shots played by him were false, and on balls attacked, almost 17 were false shots.

Babar often starts his innings a bit slow. The ball-by-ball record of T20 internationals gives each player’s average score after each ball of their innings. Normally, one thing that is considered really accurate for Babar Azam is that he was preserving his wickets, which is categorized by playing fewer attacking shots, but this year he has changed his gears and has started taking more risks.

Teams have ten wickets to spend over 120 balls – 12 balls per wicket, compared to 30 balls per wicket in ODIs, and roughly 62 balls per wicket in Tests (the average Test innings lasts just over 100 overs in the modern era). So we can say that for a player’s innings to not be considered a failure, the player should not be dismissed in their first 12 balls. But we also don’t want the player to score slowly just to survive 12 balls. This is why we also use the expected runs from that delivery in the comparison.

The expected runs from each ball are estimated as the average runs scored from a given delivery. This is defined in terms of three variables at the time the delivery is bowled: (a) the number of balls remaining in the innings, (b) the number of wickets in hand, and (c) the innings scoring rate at the start of the delivery.

For example, after 50 balls, with two wickets lost and a current scoring rate of six runs per over in T20, the 51st ball of the innings is expected to produce 1.061 runs. Given a current scoring rate of nine runs per over, the same delivery is expected to produce 1.304 runs. After 80 balls, with two down, a current scoring rate of nine runs per over produces an expected-runs estimate of 1.518 runs per ball. Runs Above Average Replacement (RAAR) is the difference between actual runs from that ball and runs which were expected to be scored, seeing the context of the game.

Note that these are actual average runs from such deliveries available in the record. As more and more T20 fixtures are played, this expected runs record will become “smoother”. Comparing RAAR in his powerplay scores.

It is often categorized with Babar that he kills the resources early on in the innings. Let’s see how much Babar was below par in Powerplay – does he actually waste and kill the resources given to the team?

This is his overall T20 data over the years. In 2021, we saw him playing better than an average replacement of a batter when he scored 512 runs in powerplays. 2023 was disastrous as he scored more than 54 runs fewer than an average batter in the same context.

Considering his T20I form, it’s not that bad when it comes to winning over an average batter. He has been pretty close to an average batter in the powerplays, but a concerning thing is his strike rate, which has not seen any improvement in powerplays.

As we discussed earlier, a batter has a mere 12 balls to spare on his wicket in a complete T20 innings. We can actually organize a T20 innings into different categories.

Impact Innings: When the player plays more than 12 balls in the innings and scores more than the expected runs.

Scoreboard Pressure Creating Innings: When the batter played more than 12 balls and was below par than the expected runs.

Failure Innings: When the player is dismissed within 12 balls and scores fewer than the expected runs from the balls faced.

Cameos: When the batter plays less than 12 balls and scores more than the expected runs from the balls he faced.

In the table, there are a few top batters of the world taken into consideration to compare Babar’s numbers with.

In overall T20s, Babar Azam has an Impact innings rate of approximately 38%, which is 4% lower than his teammate Mohammad Rizwan. However, this rate is higher than that of other contemporary openers who also serve as anchors, such as Devon Conway and Virat Kohli. Notably, Suryakumar Yadav, the top-ranked T20I batter, excels with nearly 50% of his innings classified as Impact innings, highlighting his superior performance in this category.

Babar’s performance in Scoreboard Pressure Creating innings is notable, with 38% of his innings fitting this category. This rate surpasses all the players considered, indicating that he frequently finds himself in situations where he not only consumes resources but also falls short of expected performance. In contrast, Rohit Sharma and Suryakumar Yadav have fewer Scoreboard Pressure innings, as they either get out early without significantly depleting resources or play big innings to leave a substantial impact.

When examining failure innings, Babar, Rizwan, Conway, and Kohli each have around 16-21 failure innings out of 100, where they are dismissed before fully utilizing their allocated 12 balls and fail to exceed expectations. In comparison, Rohit Sharma experiences failure in 25% of his innings (1 out of 4), while Suryakumar Yadav and Jos Buttler face failure in 20% of their innings (1 out of 5).

Applying the same analysis to international T20s reveals additional insights:

Babar Azam plays 40% of his innings as Impact innings in international T20s, outperforming Virat Kohli, who has 38% of his innings categorized similarly. Mohammad Rizwan plays half of his innings as Impact innings, while Suryakumar Yadav leads with 53 out of 100 innings being Impact innings, demonstrating an exceptional ability to exceed expectations when facing a significant number of balls. Travis Head is also notable with a 41% impact rate.

In contrast, Nicholas Pooran, despite being a highly regarded batter, only achieves Impact innings in 30% of his international T20s, reflecting a lower frequency of exceeding expectations.

Babar Azam’s performance in scoreboard pressure situations reveals that one-third of his innings fall into the category of Scoreboard Pressure Creating innings. In these innings, he not only consumes resources but also scores less than anticipated based on the context of the game. This contrasts with Suryakumar Yadav, who excels in this area with only 1 out of 10 innings being a Scoreboard Pressure Creating innings, showcasing his efficiency in such scenarios.

When it comes to early dismissals, Babar Azam experiences failure in 15 out of 100 innings, where he is dismissed before maximizing his allotted resources. Suryakumar Yadav has a slightly better record with 13 failures per 100 innings. Notably, Yadav’s ability to deliver cameos—24% of his innings are categorized as such—indicates that 77% of his innings exceed expectations in high-pressure situations.

Scoring patterns play a crucial role in T20 cricket, where each innings is pivotal for setting a competitive total. A batter’s ability to maintain or improve their scoring rate over time can significantly impact their team’s performance. By examining a batter’s scoring patterns year over year, we can gain insights into their growth or decline in performance metrics over time. Key indicators such as scoring rates, the frequency of high-impact shots, and the ability to handle different phases of an innings provide a comprehensive view of their overall batting progression.

By tracking these patterns, we can better understand a batter’s consistency, their ability to handle pressure, and how their approach has changed in response to evolving game demands. This longitudinal analysis is essential for evaluating a batter’s effectiveness and making informed judgments about their contribution to the team across different T20 seasons.

In ODIs and Tests, scoring a single run from a delivery is often seen as a positive outcome for the batter, as it contributes to building the total score while maintaining the innings. However, in T20s, where there are only 120 balls and 10 wickets to manage, the scenario shifts significantly. Here, scoring just one run from a ball is often considered a win for the bowler because it means the batter is not capitalizing on the opportunity to score higher runs.

In T20 cricket, the benchmark for a competitive total is much higher, and 120 runs is generally considered below par. Consequently, a bowler who can restrict a batter to singles and dot balls is effectively putting pressure on the batting side.

To assess a batter’s efficiency in this high-pressure format, we need to examine how often they play consecutive dot balls or singles. The shorter these consecutive patterns, the more effectively the batter is managing to score runs and maintain the flow of the innings. I have compiled data on several top T20 players, analyzing their average or mean length of consecutive dot balls and singles to gauge their performance and efficiency in dealing with bowling pressure.

In overall T20s, Babar Azam plays an average of 4.33 consecutive dot balls and ones before scoring, indicating a relatively high susceptibility to periods of scoring drought. In comparison, Suryakumar Yadav averages 3.55 consecutive dot balls and ones, showing he generally escapes these periods more quickly.

Virat Kohli’s average stands at 4.23, while Rohit Sharma averages 4.07. Phil Salt, Jos Buttler, and Suryakumar Yadav are the only players among those considered who consistently play fewer than 4 consecutive dot balls and ones, with averages of 3.59, 3.71, and 3.55 respectively. This suggests that, against these batters, bowlers can expect a maximum of about 3.5 balls of dot deliveries before the batter inevitably scores a 2, 3, or hits a boundary.

In international T20s, the data reveals even more intriguing insights. Babar Azam’s average of 4.24 consecutive balls of dots and ones is slightly better than his overall T20 record. In contrast, Nicholas Pooran has a higher average of 5 consecutive balls of dots and ones, indicating a longer period where bowlers can restrict his scoring. For Suryakumar Yadav, Phil Salt, and Jos Buttler, the figures are similar, reflecting their consistent performance in this aspect. Travis Head, on the other hand, performs notably better in T20Is compared to his overall T20 record, averaging 3.69 consecutive balls of dots and ones before hitting a 2, 3, or boundary.

Examining Babar’s performance over the years, it becomes evident that he has allowed bowlers to gain the upper hand for increasingly longer stretches of consecutive dot balls and ones. This trend highlights a period where he has been less effective in countering pressure from bowlers, resulting in a higher number of consecutive non-scoring deliveries.

He played the fewest consecutive 0s and 1s last year, with averages of 4.15 and 4.38. However, this year, he has reverted to a pattern of consecutive dots and ones, with an average of 4.59. This indicates a significant advantage for bowlers, as Babar has been allowing them to dominate more frequently than his career average for consecutive dot balls and ones.

One notable aspect of Babar Azam’s career is his ability to score big, as evidenced by his 11 centuries in T20s. Analysis of ball-by-ball data reveals that out of these centuries, 10 were achieved within the context of the game. However, it is important to note that two of these centuries were below the average replacement level for a batter. The following sections provide detailed credentials and contextual insights for each of his centuries, highlighting their significance in terms of impact and overall contribution.

Analyzing the match dates, we have also included the wagon wheel diagrams for Babar Azam’s iconic innings. These diagrams illustrate the areas of the ground where he predominantly scored his runs during these notable performances. This visual representation helps to identify patterns in his scoring zones and provides insights into his batting tendencies during crucial innings.

Babar Azam has often been perceived as a somewhat one-dimensional player, whose scoring largely depends on his ability to hit boundaries when he finds his rhythm. While he has the capacity to score big, his six-hitting prowess tends to be limited to specific areas of the ground rather than being uniformly effective all around the field. Analysis of his boundary scoring throughout his career reveals that, although he accumulates runs effectively, his six-hitting capability is often constrained to particular directions, rather than showcasing a versatile range of power hitting. This suggests that while Babar’s batting can be highly effective on his day, it is somewhat confined in terms of directional impact and six-hitting variety.

Babar Azam’s T20 batting profile is a compelling testament to his skill and adaptability, despite ongoing critiques of his strike rate and approach. The analysis presented reveals that while Babar’s initial strike rates, particularly in the powerplay overs, may have appeared conservative, his overall performance showcases a more nuanced and effective strategy. His impressive tally of 11 T20 centuries, alongside his ability to accumulate runs in high-pressure situations, underscores a significant level of skill and consistency that goes beyond superficial metrics.

Babar’s evolution over the years, notably his increased intent and improved strike rates, especially in the 2024 season, highlights his adaptability and willingness to embrace a more aggressive approach. The comparative analysis with top contemporary players shows that Babar’s performance in impact innings and his scoring patterns place him competitively within the elite group of T20 batters. His ability to manage resources and contribute effectively in critical moments, despite a higher frequency of scoreboard pressure innings, reflects a complex but valuable role in his team’s performance.

The assessment of consecutive patterns of dot balls and ones further reveals that while Babar’s efficiency may not always surpass that of his peers, he has demonstrated notable improvements and strategic shifts over time. This includes an increased propensity for attacking shots and a growing ability to take calculated risks.

Incorporating contextual performance metrics, such as RAAR and expected runs, provides a more accurate picture of Babar’s contributions in various match situations. These metrics reveal that his innings are often crucial to shaping his team’s fortunes, even if they do not always align with traditional expectations of aggressive T20 batting.

Overall, Babar Azam’s batting in T20 cricket warrants a more nuanced appreciation. His strategic approach, significant contributions in high-stakes scenarios, and ongoing evolution as a player suggest that his impact on the game is both profound and valuable. This study advocates for a deeper understanding of his role, recognizing the multifaceted nature of his performance and the critical contributions he makes to his team’s success.

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Author: Zain @zainalysis