Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index-based inflation (CPI) increased by 27.3 percent on a year-on-year basis in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 24.9 in the previous month and 8.4 percent in August 2021, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The average inflation in the first two months of the current fiscal year 2023 is 26.1 percent compared to 8.36 percent in 2022. According to economists, this is the highest monthly inflation since October 1973.
CPI for the month of Aug’22 clocked-in at 27.26% YoY (+2.45% MoM). This takes 2MFY23 average inflation to 26.1% compared to 8.36% in 2MFY22. This is the highest inflation since Nov’1973.@PBSofficialpak @StateBank_Pak #PBS #Inflation #Pakistan #Economy #AHL pic.twitter.com/BW9s8ceiVc
— Arif Habib Limited (@ArifHabibLtd) September 1, 2022
It is worth mentioning that the impact of floods is yet to realize.
As per the monthly review of price indices by the PBS, on a month-on-month basis, CPI increased by 2.4 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 4.3 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.6 percent in Aug 2021.
The National Consumer Price Index for Aug 2022 increased by 2.45 percent over July 2022 and increased by 27.26 percent over the corresponding month of the last year i.e. Aug 2021.
According to the PBS data, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on a YoY basis increased by 41.2 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 38.5 percent a month earlier and an increase of 17.1 percent in Aug 2021 which indicates the inflation is expected to further increase in coming days and months.
The prices of food and non-food items including potatoes, eggs, pulse masoor, wheat, rice, milk, electricity charges, motor fuels, construction input items, stationery, motor vehicle accessories, cleaning & laundering, liquefied hydrocarbons, and woolen cloth increased.
CPI inflation Urban, increased by 26.2 percent on a year-on-year basis in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 23.6 percent in the previous month and 8.3 percent in Aug 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.6 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 4.5 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5 percent in Aug 2021.
CPI inflation Rural, increased by 28.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 26.9 percent in the previous month and 8.4 percent in Aug 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.2 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 4.2 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.7 percent in Aug 2021.
Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased by 34.0 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 28.2 percent a month earlier and an increase of 15.9 percent in Aug 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 5.2 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 7.3 percent a month earlier and an increase of 0.7 percent in Aug 2021.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on a YoY basis increased by 41.2 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 38.5 percent a month earlier and an increase of 17.1 percent in Aug 2021. WPI inflation on an MoM basis increased by 3.1 percent in Aug 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.0 percent a month earlier and an increase of 1.2 percent in the corresponding month i.e. Aug 2021.
Measured by non-food and non-energy Urban increased by 13.8 percent on a YoY basis in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 12.0 percent in the previous month and 6.3 percent in August 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 1.8 percent in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 1.2 percent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.2 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. August 2021.
Measured by non-food non-energy Rural increased by 16.5 percent on a YoY basis in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 14.6 percent in the previous month and 6.2 percent in August 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 1.8 percent in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 1.6 percent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.2 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. August 2021.
Measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean Urban increased by 21.4 percent on a YoY basis in August 2022 as compared to 19.1 percent in the previous month and 7.8 percent in August 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 1.7 percent in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.7 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.4 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. August 2021.
Measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean Rural increased by 23.8 percent on a YoY basis in August 2022 as compared to 21.7 percent in the previous month and by 7.8 percent in August 2021. On an MoM basis, it increased by 1.8 percent in August 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.7 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. August 2021.
Food
The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among the food that registered an increase are tomatoes (52.85 percent), pulse moong (15.27 percent), vegetables (13.44 percent), pulse mash (12.47 percent), pulse masoor (11.76 percent), eggs (7.53 percent), besan (6.5 percent), pulse gram (6.08 percent), gram whole (5.67 percent), potatoes (4.99 percent), beans (3.07 percent) and cooking oil (2.34 percent).
The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among the food that registered a decrease are fruits (19.98 percent), chicken (11.54 percent), and vegetable ghee (0.74 percent). non-food increased: electricity charges (19.73 percent), liquefied hydrocarbons (8.53 percent), readymade garments (7.85 percent), construction input items (7.53 percent), stationery (7.29 percent), cleaning & laundering (6.73 percent), motor vehicle accessories (5.20 percent), cotton cloth (4.67 percent) and furniture & furnishing (2.33 percent).
Year-on-year top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. August 2021 and increased among food include food increased: pulse masoor (114.34 percent), onions (90.54 percent), mustard oil (81.16 percent), gram whole (77.23 percent), cooking oil (74.66 percent), vegetable ghee (69.82 percent), pulse gram (60.25 percent), chicken (59.89 percent), pulse mash (52.70 percent), besan (47.83 percent), wheat (44.48 percent), vegetables (41.62 percent), tomatoes (38.02 percent), rice (36.28 percent), eggs (35.27 percent), meat (26.81 percent) and milk (25.01 percent).
Year-on-year top few commodities varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. August 2021 and decreased: condiments & spices (17.43 percent) and sugar (15.69 percent).
The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to rural CPI and which increased among food items are tomatoes (30.02 percent), vegetables (19.62 percent), pulse mash (15.15 percent), pulse masoor (13.69 percent), pulse moong (12.71 percent), besan (9.71 percent), pulse gram (8.92 percent), condiments & spices (7.73 percent), eggs (6.55 percent), gram whole (6.29 percent), potatoes (5.51 percent), onions (4.26 percent), beans (3.57 percent), rice (3.57 percent) and meat (1.88 percent).
Decreased: fruits (24.28 percent), chicken (13.64 percent), vegetable ghee (2.86 percent), cooking oil (2.54 percent), mustard oil (1.18 percent) and sugar (0.31 percent) non-food increased: electricity charges (19.73 percent), liquefied hydrocarbons (6.97 percent), cleaning & laundering (3.42 percent), footwear (3.30 percent), stationery (2.97 percent), furniture & furnishing (2.83 percent), readymade garments (2.40 percent) and cotton cloth (1.88 percent).
Year-on-year: top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. August 2021 and increased (food) are: pulse masoor (118.64 percent), onions (96.70 percent), gram whole (88.82 percent), cooking oil (69.61 percent), mustard oil (69.19 percent), vegetable ghee (68.67 percent), pulse gram (65.65 percent), chicken (63.26 percent), pulse mash (52.38 percent), besan (48.54 percent), vegetables (41.61 percent), wheat (39.80 percent), rice (35.29 percent), eggs (34.54 percent), tomatoes (29.72 percent), beans (29.56 percent), meat (26.08 percent) and fruits (24.41 percent).
Year-on-year: The top commodity which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. August 2021 and decreased is sugar (16.29 percent).
Non Food
The top commodity which varied from the previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among non-food that decreased is motor fuel (2.60 percent).
Year-on-year top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. August 2021 and non-food that increased: electricity charges (123.37 percent), motor fuel (84.21 percent), stationery (44.12 percent), cleaning & laundering (39.16 percent), liquefied hydrocarbons (33.66 percent), washing soap/detergents/matchbox (28.86 percent), construction input items (27.77 percent), motor vehicle accessories (27.37 percent) and cotton cloth (23.53 percent).
The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to rural CPI and which decreased (non-food) are motor fuels (3.16 percent).
Prices of non-food items that increased are electricity charges (123.37 percent), motor fuels (87.34 percent), liquefied hydrocarbons (43.92 percent), construction input items (35.44percent), cleaning & laundering (30.49 percent), motor vehicles accessories (28.80 percent), washing soaps/detergents/ match box (28.23 percent), stationery (27.23 percent), solid fuel (22.25 percent) and hosiery (22.15 percent).
Overall
The top few commodities which varied from the previous month and contributed to the WPI inflation and increased included electrical energy (33.90 percent), vegetables (31.96 percent), paper (21.09 percent), pipe fittings (20.36 percent), silk & rayon fabrics (14.89 percent), fiber crops (13.56 percent), stimulant & spice crops (13.40 percent), other fabrics (12.10 percent), tractors (11.02 percent), chuff cutter (10.88 percent), ceramics & sanitary fixture (8.9 percent), lathe machines (8.87 percent), eggs (7.90 percent), pulses (7.59 percent), cereal flour (7.54 percent), readymade garments (7.35 percent) and Mobil oil (6.81 percent).
Decreased: poultry (11.47 percent), fruits (9.28 percent), diesel oil (7.29 percent), kerosene oil (6.29 percent), motor spirit (4.71 percent), bajra (3.92 percent), furnace oil (3.13 percent), cement (2.47 percent), maize (2.05 percent) and steel bar & sheets (1.32 percent).
Year-on-year: top few commodities which varied from the previous year and increased are chuff cutter (178.21 percent), concrete mixture (139.71 percent), kerosene oil (127.8 percent), diesel oil (118.34 percent), electrical energy (115.8 percent), motor spirit (93.08 percent), furnace oil (83.93 percent), fertilizers (81.10 percent), coal (79.42 percent), chemicals (79.06 percent), pulses (74.24 percent), vegetable ghee (71.82 percent), cultivators (68.18 percent), bed foam (65.43 percent), poultry (63.71 percent), pipe fittings (57.97 percent), lathe machines (56.47 percent), glass sheets (55.69 percent), vegetable oils (53.92 percent), other cereal flour (52.41 percent), vegetables (49.70 percent) and cement (48.41 percent).
Year-on-year: top few commodities which varied from the previous year and decreased are spices (39.78 percent), stimulant & spice crops (19.24 percent), bajra (15.18 percent), and sugar (14.63 percent).
